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The Impact of HIV on Total Factor Productivity

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  • Alemu, Zerihun G.
  • Roe, Terry L.
  • Smith, Rodney B.W

Abstract

This study investigates whether HIV prevalence rates impacts TFP growth. We construct a panel of data on general macroeconomic indicators and HIV prevalence rates for over 100 countries, for the years 1994 through 2002, and estimate the impact of HIV on TFP growth rates for each country. We find that HIV can have a large negative impact on factor productivity growth in Southern African countries. For example, factor productivity growth in Lesotho falls by up to 23%, and for South Africa factor productivity growth falls by up to 15%. We then investigate the potential impact of the disease on the economic growth of Lesotho and South Africa by calibrating a single sector, neoclassical model of economic growth with endogenous savings to the two countries. The models show that TFP effects can have large, negative impacts on both per capita GDP and aggregate GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Alemu, Zerihun G. & Roe, Terry L. & Smith, Rodney B.W, 2006. "The Impact of HIV on Total Factor Productivity," Conference papers 331456, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:331456
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marijke Kuiper, 2004. "Fifty ways to leave your protection: comparing applied models of the Euro-Mediterannean association agreements," ENARPRI Working Papers 006, ENARPRI (European Network of Agricultural and Rural Policy Research Institutes).
    2. Huang, Hsin & van Tongeren, Frank & Dewbre, Joe Dewbre, Joe & van Meijl, Hans, 2004. "A New Representation of Agricultural Production Technology in GTAP," Conference papers 330233, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    3. Kuiper, Marijke H., 2004. "Fifty Ways to Leave Your Protection: Comparing Applied Models of the Euro-Mediterranean Association Agreements," ENARPRI Working Papers 25132, European Network of Agricultural and Rural Policy Research Institutes (ENARPRI).
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