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Generalized Hedge Ratio Estimation With An Unknown Model

Listed author(s):
  • Dorfman, Jeffrey H.
  • Sanders, Dwight R.

Myers and Thompson (1989) pioneered the concept of a generalized approach to estimating hedge ratios, pointing out that the model specification could have a large impact on the hedge ratio estimated. While a huge empirical literature exists on estimating hedge ratios, the literature is lacking a formal treatment of model specification uncertainty. This research accomplishes that task by taking a Bayesian approach to hedge ratio estimation, where specification uncertainty is explicitly modeled. Specifically, we present a Bayesian approach to hedge ratio estimation that integrates over model specification uncertainty, yielding an optimal hedge ratio estimator that is robust to possible model specification because it is an average across a set of hedge ratios conditional on di erent models. Model specifications vary by exogenous variables (such as exports, stocks, and interest rates) and lag lengths included. The methodology is applied to data on corn and soybeans and results show the potential benefits and insights gained from such an approach.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19024
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Paper provided by NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management in its series 2004 Conference, April 19-20, 2004, St. Louis, Missouri with number 19024.

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Date of creation: 2004
Handle: RePEc:ags:ncrfou:19024
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.agebb.missouri.edu/ncrext/ncr134/

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  1. Sergio H. Lence & Dermot J. Hayes, 1994. "The Empirical Minimum-Variance Hedge," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 76(1), pages 94-104.
  2. Sergio H. Lence & Dermot J. Hayes, 1993. "Empirical Minimum Variance Hedge, The," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 93-wp109, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
  3. Myers, Robert J. & Thompson, Stanley R., 1988. "Generalized Optimal Hedge Ratio Estimation," Staff Papers 200967, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
  4. Dorfman, J.H. & Lastrapes, W.D., 1993. "The Dynamic Responses of Crop and Livestock Prices to Money Supply Shocks: A Bayesian Analysis using Long Run Restrictions," Papers 429, Georgia - College of Business Administration, Department of Economics.
  5. B. Wade Brorsen & Darren W. Buck & Stephen R. Koontz, 1998. "Hedging hard red winter wheat: Kansas City versus Chicago," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 449-466, June.
  6. Jeffrey H. Dorfman & William D. Lastrapes, 1996. "The Dynamic Responses of Crop and Livestock Prices to Money-Supply Shocks: A Bayesian Analysis Using Long-Run Identifying Restrictions," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(3), pages 530-541.
  7. Anderson, Ronald W & Danthine, Jean-Pierre, 1981. "Cross Hedging," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(6), pages 1182-1196, December.
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