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Effective Basemetal Hedging: The Optimal Hedge Ratio and Hedging Horizon


  • Michaël Dewally

    () (Marquette University, 1250 W. Wisconsin Ave., Milwaukee, WI 53233, USA)

  • Luke Marriott

    (MillerCoors LLC, 250 South Wacker Drive, Chicago, IL 60606, USA)


This study investigates optimal hedge ratios in all base metal markets. Using recent hedging computation techniques, we find that 1) the short-run optimal hedging ratio is increasing in hedging horizon, 2) that the long-term horizon limit to the optimal hedging ratio is not converging to one but is slightly higher for most of these markets, and 3) that hedging effectiveness is also increasing in hedging horizon. When hedging with futures in these markets, one should hedge long-term at about 6 to 8 weeks with a slightly greater than one hedge ratio. These results are of interest to many purchasing departments and other commodity hedgers.

Suggested Citation

  • Michaël Dewally & Luke Marriott, 2008. "Effective Basemetal Hedging: The Optimal Hedge Ratio and Hedging Horizon," Journal of Risk and Financial Management, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 1(1), pages 1-36, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:1:y:2008:i:1:p:41-76:d:28294

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    2. Pesaran, M Hashem, 1997. "The Role of Economic Theory in Modelling the Long Run," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 178-191, January.
    3. Abdur R. Chowdhury, 1991. "Futures market efficiency: Evidence from cointegration tests," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 577-589, October.
    4. Ronald W. Ward & Lehman B. Fletcher, 1971. "From Hedging to Pure Speculation: A Micro Model of Optimal Futures and Cash Market Positions," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 53(1), pages 71-78.
    5. Ederington, Louis H, 1979. "The Hedging Performance of the New Futures Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(1), pages 157-170, March.
    6. Anderson, Ronald W & Danthine, Jean-Pierre, 1981. "Cross Hedging," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(6), pages 1182-1196, December.
    7. Robert J. Myers & Stanley R. Thompson, 1989. "Generalized Optimal Hedge Ratio Estimation," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 71(4), pages 858-868.
    8. Donald Lien & Xiangdong Luo, 1993. "Estimating multiperiod hedge ratios in cointegrated markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(8), pages 909-920, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mara Madaleno & Carlos Pinho, 2010. "Hedging Performance and Multiscale Relationships in the German Electricity Spot and Futures Markets," Journal of Risk and Financial Management, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 3(1), pages 1-37, December.
    2. Dinica, Mihai Cristian & Armeanu, Daniel, 2014. "The Optimal Hedging Ratio for Non-Ferrous Metals," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 105-122, March.

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    JEL classification:

    • C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods
    • E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G - Financial Economics


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