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Accuracy-Informativeness Tradeoff for Interval Forecast Comparison

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  • Isengildina, Olga
  • Mattos, Fabio

Abstract

Price interval forecasts are analyzed in this study focusing on three main characteristics: coverage, error and informativeness. The tradeoff between accuracy and informativeness results from the fact that greater accuracy is achieved at the cost of lower informativeness and vice versa. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate user preferences for these characteristics using experimental methods. Contingent valuation methods were used to elicit user willingness to pay for forecasts with various characteristics. Estimation results demonstrate that coverag

Suggested Citation

  • Isengildina, Olga & Mattos, Fabio, 2015. "Accuracy-Informativeness Tradeoff for Interval Forecast Comparison," 2015 Conference, April 20-21, 2015, St. Louis, Missouri 285833, NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:n13415:285833
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.285833
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Olga Isengildina‐Massa & Julia L. Sharp, 2012. "Evaluation of USDA Interval Forecasts Revisited: Asymmetry and Accuracy of Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Prices," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 310-323, June.
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