The Impact of Large-Scale Agricultural Investments on Welfare and Livelihoods of Local Communities: A Meta-Analysis

Large-scale land investments are often pursued as pro-poor investments by governments in developing countries. However, research on their actual impact on local communities offers a mixed picture. This meta-analysis, drawing on estimates of 37 primary studies, sheds light to understand the overall impact of these investments on local communities. Our analysis finds a modest positive average impact (standardized mean effect size of 0.043) of large-scale agricultural investments on local communities' welfare and livelihoods. This suggests that, on average, large- scale agricultural investments can contribute to positive outcomes. Some potential pathways for this benefit include asset building, increasing income and enhancing food security. However, the sub-group analysis show that the average impact is heterogenous across host countries of these investments. For most of the countries the positive significant impact is robust. We discussed the source of these heterogeneity, the impact pathways and publication bias in the primary studies. The overall positive impact, albeit modest, suggests potential for large-scale agricultural investments to contribute to development outcomes. However, the smaller mean effect size and the observed heterogeneity highlight the need for further research to fully understand the nuances of large-scale agricultural investments.