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¿Crisis real o crisis de expectativas?: el empleo en el Perú antes y después de las reformas estructurales

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  • Saavedra Chanduvi, Jaime

Abstract

En esta investigación se analizan los mecanismos de ajuste del mercado de trabajo entre 1986 y 1997. Luego de un estancamiento del empleo entre 1988 y 1992, periodo recesivo en el cual el mercado de trabajo se ajustó a través de una reducción en los ingresos reales y una menor tasa de participación laboral, a partir de 1993, el empleo empezó a crecer junto con el nivel de actividad económica. El mercado de trabajo fue capaz de absorber el aumento de la oferta de empleo en ese periodo. El aumento del empleo fue generado íntegramente por el sector privado, ya que el empleo público se redujo. Sin embargo, hay grupos demográficos específicos, como los hombres de mayor edad, para quienes el crecimiento del empleo ha sido muy pequeño, y las probabilidades de desempleo han aumentado. A pesar de la liberalización del mercado de trabajo de 1991, el sector informal sigue comprendiendo a más de la mitad del empleo urbano, aunque no se encuentra un crecimiento de la participación del empleo informal, como usualmente se afirma. Comparando 1986 con 1997, se encuentra una destrucción neta de empleo de muy bajos ingresos pero también de empleos de muy altos ingresos. El sector servicios ha incrementado su participación en el empleo, tanto servicios de alta como de baja productividad. Parte importante del crecimiento del empleo asalariado ha sido vía contratos temporales, lo cual puede estar explicando el incremento de la participación de los empleos de corta duración. Los ingresos reales medios crecieron hasta 1995, en línea con el incremento de la productividad laboral, y a partir de ese año se estancaron. Como se describe aquí, a excepción de los hombres mayores, para el resto de los ocupados el problema principal son los bajos ingresos derivados de una baja productividad. Si bien los cambios en empleo e ingresos en el mercado de trabajo han ido en la dirección correcta, la magnitud de los mismos no han sido suficientes y la falta de empleo sigue siendo percibida como el problema más grave según la opinión pública.

Suggested Citation

  • Saavedra Chanduvi, Jaime, 1998. "¿Crisis real o crisis de expectativas?: el empleo en el Perú antes y después de las reformas estructurales," Working Papers 37981, Group for the Analysis of Development (GRADE).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:gradwp:37981
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.37981
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Escobal, Javier & Saavedra, Jaime & Torero, Máximo, 1999. "Los activos de los pobres en el Perú," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 66(263), pages 619-659, Julio-sep.
    2. Eduardo Lora & Gustavo Márquez, 1998. "El problema del empleo en América Latina: percepciones y un extracto de los hechos," Research Department Publications 4115, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    3. Carmen Pagés-Serra & Gustavo Márquez, 1998. "Ties That Bind: Employment Protection and Labor Market Outcomes in Latin America," Research Department Publications 4118, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    4. Carmen Pagés-Serra & Gustavo Márquez, 1998. "Ties That Bind: Employment Protection and Labor Market Outcomes in Latin America," Research Department Publications 4118, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nikita Céspedes Reynaga, 2020. "Crecer no es suficiente para reducir la informalidad," Capítulos de libros, in: Nikita Céspedes Reynaga & Norman V. Loayza & Nelson R. Ramírez Rondán (ed.), Crecimiento económico en el Perú: causas y consecuencias, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 174-203, Universidad de San Martín de Porres.
    2. Céspedes Reynaga, Nikita, 2003. "Factores cíclicos y estructurales en la evolución de la tasa de desempleo," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 9, pages 199-221.
    3. Céspedes, Nikita, 2006. "Efectos del salario mínimo en el mercado laboral peruano," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 13.
    4. Schady, Norbert R., 2002. "The (positive) effect of macroeconomic crises on the schoolingand employment decisions of children in a middle-income country," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2762, The World Bank.
    5. Jaime Saavedra-Chanduví & Martin Valdivia, 2000. "Household and Individual Decision-Making Over the Life Cycle: A First Look at Evidence from Peruvian Cohorts," Research Department Publications 3122, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    6. Ferreira, Francisco H. G. & Schady, Norbert, 2008. "Aggregate economic shocks, child schooling and child health," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4701, The World Bank.
    7. Saavedra Chanduvi, Jaime & Maruyama Sasaki, Eduardo, 2000. "Estabilidad laboral e indemnizaciómn: efectos de los costos de despido sobre el funcionamiento del mercado laboral peruano," Working Papers 37813, Group for the Analysis of Development (GRADE).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labor and Human Capital;

    JEL classification:

    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor
    • J4 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets

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