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The Effects of Air Pollution on COVID-19 Related Mortality in Northern Italy

Author

Listed:
  • Coker, Eric
  • Cavalli, Laura
  • Fabrizi, Enrico
  • Guastella, Gianni
  • Lippo, Enrico
  • Parisi, Maria Laura
  • Pontarollo, Nicola
  • Rizzati, Massimiliano
  • Varacca, Alessandro
  • Vergalli, Sergio

Abstract

Long-term exposure to ambient air pollutant concentrations is known to cause chronic lung inflammation, a condition that may promote increased severity of COVID-19 syndrome caused by the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2). In this paper, we empirically investigate the ecologic association between long-term concentrations of area-level fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and excess deaths in the first quarter of 2020 in municipalities of Northern Italy. The study accounts for potentially spatial confounding factors related to urbanization that may have influenced the spreading of SARS-CoV-2 and related COVID-19 mortality. Our epidemiological analysis uses geographical information (e.g., municipalities) and negative binomial regression to assess whether both ambient PM2.5 concentration and excess mortality have a similar spatial distribution. Our analysis suggests a positive association of ambient PM2.5 concentration on excess mortality in Northern Italy related to the COVID-19 epidemic. Our estimates suggest that a one-unit increase in PM2.5 concentration (μg/m3) is associated with a 9% (95% confidence interval: 6% - 12%) increase in COVID-19 related mortality.

Suggested Citation

  • Coker, Eric & Cavalli, Laura & Fabrizi, Enrico & Guastella, Gianni & Lippo, Enrico & Parisi, Maria Laura & Pontarollo, Nicola & Rizzati, Massimiliano & Varacca, Alessandro & Vergalli, Sergio, 2020. "The Effects of Air Pollution on COVID-19 Related Mortality in Northern Italy," FACTS: Firms And Cities Towards Sustainability 305210, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) > FACTS: Firms And Cities Towards Sustainability.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:feemff:305210
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.305210
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Leonardo Becchetti & Gianluigi Conzo & Pierluigi Conzo & Francesco Salustri, 2020. "Understanding the heterogeneity of COVID-19 deaths and contagions: the role of air pollution and lockdown decisions," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 614, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    2. Gavin Shaddick & Matthew L. Thomas & Amelia Green & Michael Brauer & Aaron van Donkelaar & Rick Burnett & Howard H. Chang & Aaron Cohen & Rita Van Dingenen & Carlos Dora & Sophie Gumy & Yang Liu & Ran, 2018. "Data integration model for air quality: a hierarchical approach to the global estimation of exposures to ambient air pollution," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 67(1), pages 231-253, January.
    3. Goutte, Stéphane & Péran, Thomas & Porcher, Thomas, 2020. "The role of economic structural factors in determining pandemic mortality rates: Evidence from the COVID-19 outbreak in France," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    4. Matthew A Cole & Ceren Ozgen & Eric Strobl, 2020. "Air Pollution Exposure and Covid-19," Discussion Papers 20-13, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Health Economics and Policy;

    JEL classification:

    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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