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The Effects of Air Pollution on COVID-19 Related Mortality in Northern Italy

Author

Listed:
  • Coker Eric

    (College of Public Health and Health Professions, University of Florida)

  • Cavalli Laura

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei)

  • Fabrizi Enrico

    (Department of Economics and Social Sciences, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore)

  • Guastella Gianni

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and Department of Mathematics and Physics, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore)

  • Lippo Enrico

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei)

  • Parisi Maria Laura

    (Department of Economics and Management, Università degli studi di Brescia)

  • Pontarollo Nicola

    (Department of Economics and Management, Università degli studi di Brescia)

  • Rizzati Massimiliano

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei)

  • Varacca Alessandro

    (Department of Agricultural Economics, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore)

  • Vergalli Sergio

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and Department of Economics and Management, Università degli studi di Brescia)

Abstract

Long-term exposure to ambient air pollutant concentrations is known to cause chronic lung inflammation, a condition that may promote increased severity of COVID-19 syndrome caused by the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2). In this paper, we empirically investigate the ecologic association between long-term concentrations of area-level fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and excess deaths in the first quarter of 2020 in municipalities of Northern Italy. The study accounts for potentially spatial confounding factors related to urbanization that may have influenced the spreading of SARS-CoV-2 and related COVID-19 mortality. Our epidemiological analysis uses geographical information (e.g., municipalities) and negative binomial regression to assess whether both ambient PM2.5 concentration and excess mortality have a similar spatial distribution. Our analysis suggests a positive association of ambient PM2.5 concentration on excess mortality in Northern Italy related to the COVID-19 epidemic. Our estimates suggest that a one-unit increase in PM2.5 concentration (µg/m3) is associated with a 9% (95% confidence interval: 6% - 12%) increase in COVID-19 related mortality.

Suggested Citation

  • Coker Eric & Cavalli Laura & Fabrizi Enrico & Guastella Gianni & Lippo Enrico & Parisi Maria Laura & Pontarollo Nicola & Rizzati Massimiliano & Varacca Alessandro & Vergalli Sergio, 2020. "The Effects of Air Pollution on COVID-19 Related Mortality in Northern Italy," Working Papers 2020.06, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    • Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2020.06
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Becchetti, Leonardo & Conzo, Gianluigi & Conzo, Pierluigi & Salustri, Francesco, 2020. "Understanding the Heterogeneity of Covid-19 Deaths and Contagions: The Role of Air Pollution and Lockdown Decisions," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 202014, University of Turin.
    2. Goutte, Stéphane & Péran, Thomas & Porcher, Thomas, 2020. "The role of economic structural factors in determining pandemic mortality rates: Evidence from the COVID-19 outbreak in France," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    3. Gavin Shaddick & Matthew L. Thomas & Amelia Green & Michael Brauer & Aaron van Donkelaar & Rick Burnett & Howard H. Chang & Aaron Cohen & Rita Van Dingenen & Carlos Dora & Sophie Gumy & Yang Liu & Ran, 2018. "Data integration model for air quality: a hierarchical approach to the global estimation of exposures to ambient air pollution," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 67(1), pages 231-253, January.
    4. Matthew A Cole & Ceren Ozgen & Eric Strobl, 2020. "Air Pollution Exposure and Covid-19," Discussion Papers 20-13, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Mortality; Pollution; Italy; Municipalities;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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