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Forward Hedging Under Price and Production Risk of Wheat

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  • Xing, Liu
  • Pietola, Kyosti

Abstract

This paper estimates optimal hedging ratios for a Finnish spring wheat producer under price and yield risk. The forward contract available for hedging fixes the price and quantity at the time of sowing for a delivery at harvest. Autoregressive models are used to obtain point forecasts for the conditional mean price and price volatility at harvest. Expected yield and yield volatility are estimated from the field experiment data. A range of coefficients of absolute risk aversion are used in the computations. The results suggest that yield volatility is large and it dominates the price volatility in the optimal hedging decisions of the Finnish wheat producers. Nevertheless, a potential for large negative correlation between the price and the yield decreases the optimal hedging ratio since the Finnish farmers do not have access to selling put options when they enter in a forward contract.

Suggested Citation

  • Xing, Liu & Pietola, Kyosti, 2005. "Forward Hedging Under Price and Production Risk of Wheat," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24467, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:eaae05:24467
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Nauges, Celine & O'Donnell, Christopher J. & Quiggin, John C., 2009. "Uncertainty and technical efficiency in Finnish Agriculture," 2009 Conference (53rd), February 11-13, 2009, Cairns, Australia 48062, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    2. Lehtonen, Heikki & Kujala, Sanna, 2007. "Climate change impacts on crop risks and agricultural production in Finland," 101st Seminar, July 5-6, 2007, Berlin Germany 9259, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Browne, Natalie & Kingwell, Ross & Behrendt, Ralph & Eckard, Richard, 2013. "The relative profitability of dairy, sheep, beef and grain farm enterprises in southeast Australia under selected rainfall and price scenarios," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 35-44.
    4. CĂ©line Nauges & Christopher J. O'Donnell & John Quiggin, 2011. "Uncertainty and technical efficiency in Finnish agriculture: a state-contingent approach," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 38(4), pages 449-467, October.

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    Keywords

    Financial Economics; Risk and Uncertainty;

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