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International wheat price volatility and the increasing export of Russia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine

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  • Kemeny, Gabor
  • Fogarasi, Jozsef
  • Varga, Tibor
  • Toth, Orsolya
  • Toth, Kristof

Abstract

Increasing price volatility of agricultural commodities over the last decade has focused a growing body of literature to identify the influencing factors of price variability. We analyze the effect of increasing wheat export from the Former Soviet Union (FSU) countries to the international wheat market and price volatility. The major wheat producer and exporter FSU countries, Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan have experienced increasing share on the international wheat market. An ordinary least square method is applied to estimate the influence of wheat export from Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan on the international wheat price volatility. We found evidence of positive relationship between international wheat price and the expanding net wheat export from FSU.

Suggested Citation

  • Kemeny, Gabor & Fogarasi, Jozsef & Varga, Tibor & Toth, Orsolya & Toth, Kristof, 2012. "International wheat price volatility and the increasing export of Russia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122550, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:eaa123:122550
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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122550
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. James R. Jones & Shuang L. Li & Stephen Devadoss & Charlotte (Jensen) Fedane, 1996. "The Former Soviet Union and the World Wheat Economy," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(4), pages 869-878.
    2. Maurice J. Roche & Kieran McQuinn, 2003. "Grain price volatility in a small open economy," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 30(1), pages 77-98, March.
    3. Lyubov A. Kurkalova & Alicia Carriquiry, 2002. "An Analysis of Grain Production Decline During the Early Transition in Ukraine: A Bayesian Inference," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1256-1263.
    4. Daniel A. Sumner, 2009. "Recent Commodity Price Movements in Historical Perspective," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1250-1256.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    wheat price volatility; wheat export; FSU countries; Risk and Uncertainty; Q17; O13;

    JEL classification:

    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products

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