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What if meat consumption would decrease more than expected in the developed countries?

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  • Santini, Fabien
  • Ronzon, Tevecia
  • Perez Dominguez, Ignacio
  • Araujo Enciso, Sergio Rene
  • Proietti, Ilaria

Abstract

As a complement to the analysis of the baseline scenario used for the European Commission agricultural market outlook, a first alternative scenario envisaging a lower meat consumption trend have been elaborated. It shows that a decrease in per capita meat consumption in developed countries and selected Latin American countries would impact on the world and EU meat markets, and consequently on markets of crops used as feed, prices being under pressure despite the continuing increase of meat consumption in the rest of the world. In a second scenario where the decrease of meat consumption is compensated by an increase intake of plant products and certain other animal products such as dairy or eggs, the impact on markets other than the meat ones is mitigated, although the beef meat sector is even more affected by an increase of dairy products outputs. This possible evolution would be a challenge for farmers, who can rely for this on the CAP policy tools, in their diverse implementation among Member States

Suggested Citation

  • Santini, Fabien & Ronzon, Tevecia & Perez Dominguez, Ignacio & Araujo Enciso, Sergio Rene & Proietti, Ilaria, 2015. "What if meat consumption would decrease more than expected in the developed countries?," 2015 Fourth Congress, June 11-12, 2015, Ancona, Italy 207352, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aiea15:207352
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.207352
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    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/207352/files/What%20if%20meat%20consumption%20would%20decrease%20more%20than%20expected%20in%20the%20developed%20countries.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wolf, Oliver & Pérez-Domínguez, Ignacio & Rueda-Cantuche, Jose M. & Tukker, Arnold & Kleijn, René & de Koning, Arjan & Bausch-Goldbohm, Sandra & Verheijden, Marieke, 2011. "Do healthy diets in Europe matter to the environment? A quantitative analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 8-28, January.
    2. Josef Schmidhuber, 2004. "The Growing Global Obesity Problem: Some Policy Options to Address It," The Electronic Journal of Agricultural and Development Economics, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, vol. 1(2), pages 272-290.
    3. Garnett, Tara, 2011. "Where are the best opportunities for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the food system (including the food chain)?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(S1), pages 23-32.
    4. Tukker, Arnold & Goldbohm, R. Alexandra & de Koning, Arjan & Verheijden, Marieke & Kleijn, René & Wolf, Oliver & Pérez-Domínguez, Ignacio & Rueda-Cantuche, Jose M., 2011. "Environmental impacts of changes to healthier diets in Europe," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(10), pages 1776-1788, August.
    5. Sergio René Araujo Enciso & Ignacio Pérez Domínguez & Fabien Santini & Sophie Helaine, 2015. "Documentation of the European Comission’s EU module of the Aglink-Cosimo modelling system," JRC Working Papers JRC92618, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    6. Linnea Laestadius & Roni Neff & Colleen Barry & Shannon Frattaroli, 2013. "Meat consumption and climate change: the role of non-governmental organizations," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(1), pages 25-38, September.
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    8. Garnett, Tara, 2011. "Where are the best opportunities for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the food system (including the food chain)?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(Supplemen), pages 23-32, January.
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