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Documentation of the European Comissions EU module of the Aglink-Cosimo modelling system




This report documents the EU module of Aglink-Cosimo model. Aglink-Cosimo is a recursive-dynamic, partial equilibrium, supply demand model of world agriculture developed by the OECD and FAO Secretariats. The model is used to simulate development of annual supply, demand and prices for the main agricultural commodities produced, consumed and traded worldwide. Aglink-Cosimo covers 44 individual countries and 12 regions, and 40 commodities clearing markets at the world level. At the EU level, the Aglink-Cosimo model is used to produce the "Prospects for Agricultural Markets and Income in the EU". This is a yearly exercise that provides a detailed overview of EU agricultural markets with a 10 year time horizon. It incorporates information from policy makers and market experts in the European Commission, stakeholders, researchers and modellers. The EU Outlook intends to provide a broad consensus about the evolution of European Agriculture in the medium-term. It serves as reference timeline for counterfactual policy analysis and market analysis done in numerous research sites in Europe. The report includes a detailed presentation and discussion of the structure and specific features of the model, along with the theoretical underpinnings. It also documents the process of calibration such as to obtain a medium-term baseline and different efforts towards the validation of results. Nonetheless, different applications in the area of uncertainty analysis and the use of partial stochastics are also included.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergio René Araujo Enciso & Ignacio Pérez Domínguez & Fabien Santini & Sophie Helaine, 2015. "Documentation of the European Comissions EU module of the Aglink-Cosimo modelling system," JRC Research Reports JRC92618, Joint Research Centre.
  • Handle: RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc92618

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    1. Chatzopoulos, Thomas & Domínguez, Ignacio Pèrez & Zampieri, Matteo & Toreti, Andrea, 2017. "Extreme Weather and Global Agricultural Markets: Experimental Analysis of the Impacts of Heat Waves on Wheat Markets," International Journal on Food System Dynamics, International Center for Management, Communication, and Research, vol. 2017(1), June.
    2. Santini, Fabien & Ronzon, Tévécia & Perez Dominguez, Ignacio & Araujo Enciso, Sergio René & Proietti, Ilaria, 2017. "What if meat consumption would decrease more than expected in the high-income countries?," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 6(1), May.
    3. Christian Elleby & Hans Grinsted Jensen & Ignacio Pérez Domínguez & Thomas Chatzopoulos & Pierre Charlebois, 2021. "Insects Reared on Food Waste: A Game Changer for Global Agricultural Feed Markets?," EuroChoices, The Agricultural Economics Society, vol. 20(3), pages 56-62, December.
    4. Christian Elleby & Ignacio Pérez Domínguez & Marcel Adenauer & Giampiero Genovese, 2020. "Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Global Agricultural Markets," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(4), pages 1067-1079, August.
    5. Thompson, Wyatt & Dewbre, Joe & Pieralli, Simone & Schroeder, Kateryna & Pérez Domínguez, Ignacio & Westhoff, Patrick, 2019. "Long-term crop productivity response and its interaction with cereal markets and energy prices," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 1-9.
    6. Ignacio Pérez Domínguez & Thomas Fellmann & Franz Weiss & Peter Witzke & Jesús Barreiro-Hurlé & Mihaly Himics & Torbjörn Jansson & Guna Salputra & Adrian Leip, 2016. "An economic assessment of GHG mitigation policy options for EU agriculture (EcAMPA 2)," JRC Research Reports JRC101396, Joint Research Centre.
    7. ARAUJO ENCISO Sergio Rene & PIERALLI SIMONE & PEREZ DOMINGUEZ Ignacio, 2017. "Partial Stochastic Analysis with the Aglink-Cosimo Model: A Methodological Overview," JRC Research Reports JRC108837, Joint Research Centre.
    8. Simone Pieralli & Ignacio Pérez Domínguez & Christian Elleby & Thomas Chatzopoulos, 2021. "Budgetary Impacts of Adding Agricultural Risk Management Programmes to the CAP," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(2), pages 370-387, June.
    9. Chatzopoulos, T. & Perez Dominguez, I. & Zampieri, M. & Toreti, A., 2018. "Agricultural commodity market responses to extreme agroclimatic events," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 276039, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    10. Emanuele Ferrari & Thomas Chatzopoulos & Ignacio Perez Dominguez & Pierre Boulanger & Kirsten Boysen-Urban & Mihaly Himics & Robert M’barek, 2021. "Cumulative economic impact of trade agreements on EU agriculture: 2021 update," JRC Research Reports JRC123037, Joint Research Centre.
    11. Santini, Fabien & Ronzon, Tevecia & Perez Dominguez, Ignacio & Araujo Enciso, Sergio Rene & Proietti, Ilaria, 2015. "What if meat consumption would decrease more than expected in the developed countries?," 2015 Fourth Congress, June 11-12, 2015, Ancona, Italy 207352, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
    12. Sergio René Araujo‐Enciso & Thomas Fellmann, 2020. "Yield Variability and Harvest Failures in Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan and Their Possible Impact on Food Security in the Middle East and North Africa," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(2), pages 493-516, June.
    13. Ferrari, Emanuele & Chatzopoulos, Thomas & Domínguez, Ignacio Pérez & Boulanger, Pierre & Boysen-Urban, Kirsten & Himics, Mihaly & M'barek, Robert & Redondo, Marina Pinilla, 2021. "Economic Impact of Free Trade Agreements on the EU Agri-Food Sector," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315030, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    14. Pieralli, Simone & Dominguez, Ignacio Perez, 2017. "The Uncertain Effects of Chinese Policy Reforms on Maize: The Return of China as a Maize Exporting Giant?," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258106, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    15. Hans Jensen & Ignacio Pérez Domínguez & Thomas Fellmann & Paul Lirette & Jordan Hristov & George Philippidis, 2019. "Economic Impacts of a Low Carbon Economy on Global Agriculture: The Bumpy Road to Paris," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-17, April.

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    Partial equilibrium model; recursive dynamic; trade; multi-commodity markets; agriculture; global model; baseline; medium-term outlook;
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