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Cereal Prices, Bread Consumption and Health in Scotland


  • Revoredo-Giha, Cesar
  • Lamprinopoulou-Kranis, Chrysa
  • Toma, Luiza
  • Kupiec-Teahan, Beata
  • Leat, Philip M.K.
  • Cacciolatti, Luca


The recent rise in food prices has increased concern about the choice of a healthy food basket, especially in the context of the current formulation of a National Food Policy for Scotland. This concern has revived interest in food price and expenditure demand systems as they provide information about consumers’ food decisions. The paper focuses on the consumption of brown and white bread, as they are the most typical forms of cereals use in the UK. Moreover, nutritionists recommend the consumption of wholemeal or brown bread in contraposition to white bread as part of an appropriate diet due to its health benefits. The overall purpose of the paper is to measure the impact that the increase in the price of cereals during the period 2005 to 2008 would have had on the purchase of brown and white bread. This is undertaken in two stages: the first measures the effect of changes in milling wheat prices on brown and white bread prices, and the second measures the elasticities of the purchases of brown and white bread with respect to changes in their prices through the estimation of four demand systems. The results, excluding those from the static LA/AIDS that seem to high, indicate, ceteris paribus, that the increase by 72 per cent in the price of wheat produced a decrease in brown and white bread purchases in the range of 30 to 40 per cent; however, as regards the question what type of bread decreased more, the answer depends on the demand model used.

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  • Revoredo-Giha, Cesar & Lamprinopoulou-Kranis, Chrysa & Toma, Luiza & Kupiec-Teahan, Beata & Leat, Philip M.K. & Cacciolatti, Luca, 2009. "Cereal Prices, Bread Consumption and Health in Scotland," 83rd Annual Conference, March 30 - April 1, 2009, Dublin, Ireland 51069, Agricultural Economics Society.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aesc09:51069
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.51069

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Capps, Oral & Seo, Seong-Cheon & Nichols, John P., 1997. "On the Estimation of Advertising Effects for Branded Products: An Application to Spaghetti Sauces," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(2), pages 291-302, December.
    2. Cotterill, Ronald W., 1994. "Scanner Data: New Opportunities For Demand And Competitive Strategy Analysis," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 23(2), pages 1-15, October.
    3. Capps Jr., Oral & Church, Jeffrey & Alan Love, H., 2003. "Specification issues and confidence intervals in unilateral price effects analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(1), pages 3-31, March.
    4. Barten, Anton P, 1977. "The Systems of Consumer Demand Functions Approach: A Review," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(1), pages 23-51, January.
    5. Cotterill, Ronald W., 1994. "Scanner Data: New Opportunities for Demand and Competitive Strategy Analysis," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(2), pages 125-139, October.
    6. Seong-Cheon Seo & Oral Capps, 1997. "Regional variability of price and expenditure elasitcities: The case of spaghetti sauces," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(6), pages 659-672.
    7. Oral Capps & H. Alan Love, 2002. "Econometric Considerations in the Use of Electronic Scanner Data to Conduct Consumer Demand Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(3), pages 807-816.
    8. Deaton, Angus S & Muellbauer, John, 1980. "An Almost Ideal Demand System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 312-326, June.
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    Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety;

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