Do fluctuations in wine stocks affect wine prices?
Globalization and the expansion of world wine trade have caused a wine boom that together with agricultural subsidies have made fluctuations in wine inventories a more critical issue. In the case of domestic and international wine markets, little is known about intertemporal inventory adjustments and how they relate to prices. We investigate possible dynamic relations between these variables in a time series context, so as to better understand how wine producers and traders can face growing price and financial volatility. Countries for whom meaningful data series could be constructed include: Argentina, Australia, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United States. The study begins by examining the empirical evidence on inventories in these markets and their relation to prices. Stationarity tests are first performed to assess likely trends in the wine inventory and price variables. Cointegration analysis follows to analyze the stationary relationships between these variables. To explain the dynamics of this relationship, vector autoregressions have been estimated and impulse functions are computed to measure possible delays between variable reactions.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
- Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015.
"Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing,"
Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Alan S. Blinder & Louis J. Maccini, 1991. "Taking Stock: A Critical Assessment of Recent Research on Inventories," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 73-96, Winter.
- Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
- Orden, David, 1982. "Preliminary Empirical Evidence Concerning An Asset Theory Model Of Markets For Storable Agricultural Commodities," Staff Papers 14087, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
- Williams,Jeffrey C. & Wright,Brian D., 1991.
"Storage and Commodity Markets,"
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521326162.
- Wright, Brian D & Williams, Jeffrey C, 1982. "The Economic Role of Commodity Storage," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(367), pages 596-614, September.
- Larson, Donald Frederick & DEC, 1994. "Copper and the negative price of storage," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1282, The World Bank.
- Kawai, Masahiro, 1983. "Price Volatility of Storable Commodities under Rational Expectations in Spot and Futures Markets," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 24(2), pages 435-59, June.
- Pindyck, Robert S., 1990.
"Inventories and the short-run dynamics of commodity prices,"
3133-90., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Inventories and the Short-Run Dynamics of Commodity Prices," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 25(1), pages 141-159, Spring.
- Robert S. Pindyck, 1990. "Inventories and the Short-Run Dynamics of Commodity Prices," NBER Working Papers 3295, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-28, August.
- Akdi, Yilmaz & Berument, Hakan & Mümin Cilasun, Seyit, 2006.
"The relationship between different price indices: Evidence from Turkey,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,
Elsevier, vol. 360(2), pages 483-492.
- Hakan Berument & Seyit MŸmin Cilasun & Yilmaz Akdi, 2006. "The Relationship Between Different Price Indices : Evidence from Turkey," Working Papers 0603, Department of Economics, Bilkent University.
- Newbery, David M G & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1982. "Optimal Commodity Stock-piling Rules," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(3), pages 403-27, November.
- Eichenbaum, Martin S., 1984. "Rational expectations and the smoothing properties of inventories of finished goods," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-96, July.
- Otani, Kiyoshi, 1983. "The Price Determination in the Inventory Stock Market: A Disequilibrium Analysis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 24(3), pages 709-19, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aawewp:37317. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.