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Vector Autoregression Forecasting Models: Suggested Improvements

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  • Kaylen, Michael S.

Abstract

Two methods for building vector autoregression forecasting models are proposed. The first allows exclusion of intermediate lags; the second considers •the effects of jointly entering lags from different series into an equation. Live hog market models are developed and out-of-sample forecasting results suggest both methods have merit.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaylen, Michael S., 1986. "Vector Autoregression Forecasting Models: Suggested Improvements," 1986 Annual Meeting, July 27-30, Reno, Nevada 278167, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea86:278167
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.278167
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Caines, P. E. & Keng, C. W. & Sethi, S. P., 1981. "Causality analysis and multivariate Autoregressive modelling with an application to supermarket sales analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 267-298, November.
    2. Kling, John L. & Bessler, David A., 1985. "A comparison of multivariate forecasting procedures for economic time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 5-24.
    3. Hsiao, Cheng, 1982. "Autoregressive modeling and causal ordering of economic variables," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 243-259, November.
    4. Hirotugu Akaike, 1969. "Fitting autoregressive models for prediction," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 21(1), pages 243-247, December.
    5. Nerlove, Marc & Grether, David M. & Carvalho, José L., 1979. "Analysis of Economic Time Series," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780125157506 edited by Shell, Karl.
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    Keywords

    Livestock Production/Industries; Marketing;

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