Econometric Assessment of Research Programs: A Bayesian Approach
Effective research-project assessment typically is impeded by project variety. In particular, bibliometric approaches to science assessment tend to offer little information about the content of the projects examined. We introduce here a new approach – based on Bayesian theory – of econometrically evaluating the factors affecting scientific discovery, and use the method to assess a biological research program comprised of numerous heterogeneous projects. Our knowledge metric not only flexibly accommodates project variety but accounts for information in “failed” as well as “successful” studies. Using a mean-absolute-deviation utility functional form to measure new scientific knowledge, we decompose knowledge gain into a mean-surprise and statistical-accuracy effect. The two effects are econometrically examined independently, and then combined into the net knowledge production function. Research FTE and distance to study site have statistically significant but moderate effects on the amount by which research shifts the prediction of scientific outcome. However, scientist education powerfully improves the research study’s predictive accuracy or precision, a one-percent boost in the average investigator’s formal schooling improving precision by 4.3 percent. Largely on the basis of that precision effect, increasing returns to research project scale are evident.
|Date of creation:||12 Aug 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 555 East Wells Street, Suite 1100, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 53202|
Phone: (414) 918-3190
Fax: (414) 276-3349
Web page: http://www.aaea.org
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- David E. Schimmelpfennig & George W. Norton, 2003. "What is the Value of Agricultural Economics Research?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(1), pages 81-94.
- Bronwyn H. Hall, Adam Jaffe and Manuel Trajtenberg., 2000.
"Market Value and Patent Citations: A First Look,"
Economics Working Papers
E00-277, University of California at Berkeley.
- Hall, Bronwyn H. & Jaffe, Adam & Trajtenberg, Manuel, 2001. "Market Value and Patent Citations: A First Look," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt8vh1c20f, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Bronwyn H. Hall and Adam Jaffe, and Manuel Trajtenberg., 2001. "Market Value and Patent Citations: A First Look," Economics Working Papers E01-304, University of California at Berkeley.
- Bronwyn H. Hall & Adam B. Jaffe & Manuel Trajtenberg, 2000. "Market Value and Patent Citations: A First Look," NBER Working Papers 7741, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bronwyn H. Hall & Adam Jaffe & Manuel Trajtenberg, 2001. "Market Value and Patent Citations: A First Look," Development and Comp Systems 0012002, EconWPA.
- Hall, Bronwyn H. & Jaffee, Adam & Trajtenberg, Manuel, 2000. "Market Value and Patent Citations: A First Look," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt1rh8k6z2, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Bronwyn H. Hall & Adam Jaffe & Manuel Trajtenberg, 2002. "Market Value and Patent Citations: A First Look," Development and Comp Systems 0201001, EconWPA.
- Schimmelpfennig, David E. & Norton, George W., 2000. "What Value Is Agricultural Economics Research?," 2000 Annual meeting, July 30-August 2, Tampa, FL 21773, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
- Jaffe, Adam B, 1989. "Real Effects of Academic Research," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(5), pages 957-70, December.
- Pardey, Philip G., 1987.
"The Agricultural Knowledge Production Function: An Empirical Look,"
Evaluating Agricultural Research and Productivity, Proceedings of a Workshop, Atlanta, Georgia, January 29-30, 1987, Miscellaneous Publication 52
50022, University of Minnesota, Agricultural Experiment Station.
- Pardey, Philip G, 1989. "The Agricultural Knowledge Production Function: An Empirical Look," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(3), pages 453-61, August.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaea12:124948. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.