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Farm Employment Transitions: A Markov Chain Analysis with Self-Selectivity

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  • Iwai, Nobuyuki
  • Emerson, Robert D.
  • Walters, Lurleen M.

Abstract

A stationary, first-order Markov chain model with selection bias correction for legal status is estimated by maxixmum likelihood methods using the National Agricultural Worker Survey data for 1989-2004 to evaluate the likelihood of workers staying in U.S. agriculture by legal status. Although the conditional steady state probability in US agriculture is highest for uanauthorized workers, there is little difference between legal statuses. Simulations of the estimated model indicate that a legal status change for unauthorized workers would result in only small changes in the steady state probability of being in US agriculture, particularly after 2001.

Suggested Citation

  • Iwai, Nobuyuki & Emerson, Robert D. & Walters, Lurleen M., 2006. "Farm Employment Transitions: A Markov Chain Analysis with Self-Selectivity," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21353, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea06:21353
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.21353
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fougère, Denis & Kamionka, Thierry, 2005. "Econometrics of Individual Labor Market Transitions," IZA Discussion Papers 1850, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
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    3. Sabrina Isé & Jeffrey M. Perloff, 1995. "Legal Status and Earnings of Agricultural Workers," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 77(2), pages 375-386.
    4. Lee, Lung-Fei, 1983. "Generalized Econometric Models with Selectivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(2), pages 507-512, March.
    5. Iwai, Nobuyuki & Napasintuwong, Orachos & Emerson, Robert D., 2005. "Immigration Policy and the Agricultural Labor Market: The Effect on Job Duration," Working Papers 15659, University of Florida, International Agricultural Trade and Policy Center.
    6. Jeffrey M. Perloff & Lori Lynch & Susan M. Gabbard, 1998. "Migration of Seasonal Agricultural Workers," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(1), pages 154-164.
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    8. Lien H. Tran & Jeffrey M. Perloff, 2002. "Turnover in U.S. Agricultural Labor Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(2), pages 427-437.
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