To adopt or not to adopt? Examining the impact of climate-smart seeds varieties on production risks

While several studies have explored the yield-increasing effects of climate-smart seed varieties, little is known about the potential of these varieties to lower farmers' production risk. Using a nationally representative dataset collected from 2,216 maize-farming households in Nigeria, we fill this knowledge gap by analysing the treatment effects of adoption of drought-tolerant maize varieties (DTMVs) on production risk, measured by expected yield, yield variance (variability), and yield skewness (downside risk). To do so, we employ an endogenous switching regression model to sufficiently tackle selectively bias issue that may arise from observed and unobserved factors. Results show that DTMVs adoption increases maize yield by 26.61% and reduce variance and downside risk by 95% and 164%, respectively. The robustness of these findings is established by further analyses using the propensity score matching and inverse-probability-weighted regression adjustment approaches. We recommend that policy measures that seek to tackle dissemination constraints, such as promotion of informal seed sector, could enhance the adoption of climate-smart seeds that will eventually improve farm performance and reduce output risk.