IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/aaae23/364843.html

Projecting the demand for wine exports and associated logistical services

Author

Listed:
  • Cloete, Kandas
  • Davids, Tracy
  • Delport, Marion
  • Vink, Nick

Abstract

The imposition of sales and transport restrictions during COVID-19 lockdowns in 2020 and 2021 left the South African wine industry with record stock levels. Subsequently, however, export efficiency has been constrained by delays and congestion in the ports. In this regard, the purpose of this paper is to estimate the demand for South African wine exports over the coming decade, and to extrapolate the associated implications for logistical services. The study has three focal points: forecast changes in production volumes over a ten-year outlook period, determine the drivers of variation in packaged and bulk exports, and illustrate how this can be incorporated to project the demand for logistical services. Under current conditions, exports are estimated at 411.5 million litres in 2022, and the demand for 20 ft containers at more than 25 000. As stock levels normalise and a shift towards greater packaged exports is forecasted, the container demand will increase to almost 30 000 per annum by 2031.

Suggested Citation

  • Cloete, Kandas & Davids, Tracy & Delport, Marion & Vink, Nick, 2023. "Projecting the demand for wine exports and associated logistical services," 2023 Seventh AAAE/60th AEASA Conference, September 18-21, 2023, Durban, South Africa 364843, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaae23:364843
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.364843
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/364843/files/358.%20Wine%20in%20South%20Africa.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.364843?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. van Tongeren, Frank & van Meijl, Hans & Surry, Yves, 2001. "Global models applied to agricultural and trade policies: a review and assessment," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 26(2), pages 149-172, November.
    2. Tracy Davids & Nick Vink & Kandas Cloete, 2022. "Covid-19 and the South African wine industry," Agrekon, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 61(1), pages 42-51, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alexandre Gohin & GianCarlo Moschini, 2006. "Evaluating the Market and Welfare Impacts of Agricultural Policies in Developed Countries: Comparison of Partial and General Equilibrium Measures," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 28(2), pages 195-211.
    2. Shinoj Parappurathu & Anjani Kumar & Shiv Kumar & Rajni Jain, 2014. "A Partial Equilibrium Model for Future Outlooks on Major Cereals in India," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 8(2), pages 155-192, May.
    3. Toma, Luiza & Mathijs, Erik & Revoredo-Giha, Cesar, 2006. "Linkages between Agriculture, Trade and the Environment in the Context of the European Union Accession," Working Papers 45991, Scotland's Rural College (formerly Scottish Agricultural College), Land Economy & Environment Research Group.
    4. CARPENTIER, Alain & GOHIN, Alexandre & SCKOKAI, Paolo & THOMAS, Alban, 2015. "Economic modelling of agricultural production: past advances and new challenges," Review of Agricultural and Environmental Studies - Revue d'Etudes en Agriculture et Environnement (RAEStud), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), vol. 96(01), March.
    5. Ewa Kiryluk-Dryjska & Agnieszka Baer-Nawrocka, 2021. "Regional Differences in Benefits from the EU Common Agricultural Policy in Poland and Their Policy Implications," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-14, March.
    6. James D. A. Millington & Hang Xiong & Steve Peterson & Jeremy Woods, 2017. "Integrating Modelling Approaches for Understanding Telecoupling: Global Food Trade and Local Land Use," Land, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-18, August.
    7. Muhammad Ali & Anisul Islam, 2014. "Agribusiness Potentials for Bangladesh — an Analysis," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(3), pages 233-247.
    8. Bussolo, Maurizio & Mensbrugghe, Dominique van der & Lay, Jann, 2005. "Trade options for Latin America. A Poverty Assessment Using Macro-Micro Linkages," Conference papers 331405, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    9. Jose‐Maria Garcia‐Alvarez‐Coque & Victor Martinez‐Gomez & Miquel Villanueva, 2010. "Seasonal protection of F&V imports in the EU: impacts of the entry price system," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(2), pages 205-218, March.
    10. Gracia, Azucena & de Magistris, Tiziana & Casado, Jose Maria, 2008. "The Effect Of The New Single Farm Payment In Irrigated Agriculture: The Case Of Spain," 107th Seminar, January 30-February 1, 2008, Sevilla, Spain 6590, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    11. Nadia Belhaj Hassine & Veronique Robichaud & Bernard Decaluwé, 2010. "Agricultural Trade Liberalization, Productivity Gain and Poverty Alleviation: A General Equilibrium Analysis," Working Papers 519, Economic Research Forum, revised 05 Jan 2010.
    12. repec:got:cegedp:67 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Bouët, Antoine & Laborde Debucquet, David, 2017. "Why is the Doha Development agenda failing? And what can be done? A computable general equilibrium-game theoretical approach," IFPRI book chapters, in: Bouët, Antoine; Laborde Debucquet, David (ed.), Agriculture, development, and the global trading system: 2000– 2015, chapter 3, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    14. Kristina Toming, 2006. "The Price Impact Of Adopting The Common Agricultural Policy In Estonia: Estimated Versus Actual Effects," University of Tartu - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration Working Paper Series 45, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Tartu (Estonia).
    15. Kym Anderson, 2016. "Agricultural Trade, Policy Reforms, and Global Food Security," Palgrave Studies in Agricultural Economics and Food Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-137-46925-0, June.
    16. Kuiper, Marijke H., 2004. "Fifty Ways to Leave Your Protection: Comparing Applied Models of the Euro-Mediterranean Association Agreements," ENARPRI Working Papers 25132, European Network of Agricultural and Rural Policy Research Institutes (ENARPRI).
    17. Ragona, Maddalena & Mazzocchi, Mario, 2008. "Measuring the Impacts of Food Safety Regulations: A Methodological Review," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 43864, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    18. Britz, Wolfgang & Heckelei, Thomas, 2008. "Recent Developments In Eu Policies – Challenges For Partial Equilibrium Models," 107th Seminar, January 30-February 1, 2008, Sevilla, Spain 6315, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    19. Gonzalez-Martinez, Ana Rosa & Jongeneel, Roel & Kros, Hans & Lesschen, Jan Peter & de Vries, Marion & Reijs, Joan & Verhoog, David, 2021. "Aligning agricultural production and environmental regulation: An integrated assessment of the Netherlands," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    20. repec:ags:icar24:344972 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Gonzalez-Martinez, Ana & Jongeneel, Roel & Salamon, Petra, 2021. "Lighting on the Road to Explore Future Directions for Agricultural Modelling in the EU – some Considerations on what Needs to be Done," International Journal on Food System Dynamics, International Center for Management, Communication, and Research, vol. 12(03), September.
    22. Davids, T. & Meyer, F. & Westhoff, P., 2018. "Quantifying the regional impact of export controls in Southern African maize markets," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277353, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaae23:364843. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaaeaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.