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Projecting the demand for wine exports and associated logistical services

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  • Cloete, Kandas
  • Davids, Tracy
  • Delport, Marion
  • Vink, Nick

Abstract

The imposition of sales and transport restrictions during COVID-19 lockdowns in 2020 and 2021 left the South African wine industry with record stock levels. Subsequently, however, export efficiency has been constrained by delays and congestion in the ports. In this regard, the purpose of this paper is to estimate the demand for South African wine exports over the coming decade, and to extrapolate the associated implications for logistical services. The study has three focal points: forecast changes in production volumes over a ten-year outlook period, determine the drivers of variation in packaged and bulk exports, and illustrate how this can be incorporated to project the demand for logistical services. Under current conditions, exports are estimated at 411.5 million litres in 2022, and the demand for 20 ft containers at more than 25 000. As stock levels normalise and a shift towards greater packaged exports is forecasted, the container demand will increase to almost 30 000 per annum by 2031.

Suggested Citation

  • Cloete, Kandas & Davids, Tracy & Delport, Marion & Vink, Nick, 2023. "Projecting the demand for wine exports and associated logistical services," 2023 Seventh AAAE/60th AEASA Conference, September 18-21, 2023, Durban, South Africa 364843, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaae23:364843
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.364843
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. van Tongeren, Frank & van Meijl, Hans & Surry, Yves, 2001. "Global models applied to agricultural and trade policies: a review and assessment," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 26(2), pages 149-172, November.
    2. Tracy Davids & Nick Vink & Kandas Cloete, 2022. "Covid-19 and the South African wine industry," Agrekon, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 61(1), pages 42-51, January.
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