IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

The information content and redistribution effects of state and municipal rating changes in Mexico


  • Mendoza-Velázquez, Alfonso


The fiscal and financial reforms carried out in Mexico in 2000 have encouraged a widespread presence of rating agencies and have allowed several States and Municipalities to raise funds through bond offerings in the capital market. Any local government in Mexico intending to access credit and capital markets must count with at least one credit rating from one of the three main agencies: FitchRatings, Moody's and Standard & Poor's. This paper investigates the impact of rating changes to State and Municipal governments on bond returns in Mexico. By employing a Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) structure for the mean equation that allows conditional volatility, we find strong support for the Information Content Signaling Hypothesis (ICSH), i.e., rating upgrades (downgrades) are followed by greater (lower) bond returns. We also find some support for the Wealth Redistribution Hypothesis (WRH) indicating that rating upgrades (downgrades) are followed by lower (greater) bond returns. In addition to this, we find high volatility persistence, significant asymmetric responses of volatility to bad and good news, a negative association between market volatility and the level of bond returns and significant effects of volatility in response to rating changes. Finally, the estimations show the market anticipates and responds to rating changes within five-day momentum windows. There is a comparatively stronger reaction of returns on the event day favoring the hypothesis of market inefficiency.

Suggested Citation

  • Mendoza-Velázquez, Alfonso, 2009. "The information content and redistribution effects of state and municipal rating changes in Mexico," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 3, pages 1-21.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifweej:200938

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. M.J. Barron & A.D. Clare & S.H. Thomas, 1997. "The Effect of Bond Rating Changes and New Ratings on UK Stock Returns," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(3), pages 497-509.
    2. Fausto Hernandez Trillo & Alberto Diaz Cayeros & Rafael Gamboa Gonzalez, 2002. "Determinants and Consequences of Bailing Out States in Mexico," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 28(3), pages 365-380, Summer.
    3. Ingram, Robert W & Brooks, Leroy D & Copeland, Ronald M, 1983. " The Information Content of Municipal Bond Rating Changes: A Note," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(3), pages 997-1003, June.
    4. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    5. Pilar Abad-Romero & M. Dolores Robles-Fernandez, 2006. "Risk and Return Around Bond Rating Changes: New Evidence From the Spanish Stock Market," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(5-6), pages 885-908.
    6. Backus, David K & Gregory, Allan W, 1993. "Theoretical Relations between Risk Premiums and Conditional Variances," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 177-185, April.
    7. French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September.
    8. Reyes, Mario G., 1999. "Size, time-varying beta, and conditional heteroscedasticity in UK stock returns," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 1-10, June.
    9. Richard Followill & Terrence Martell, 1997. "Bond review and rating change announcements: An examination of informational value and market efficiency," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 21(2), pages 75-82, June.
    10. Elisa Choy & Stephen Gray & Vanitha Ragunathan, 2006. "Effect of credit rating changes on Australian stock returns," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 46(5), pages 755-769.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Alfonso Mendoza-Velázquez & Pilar Gómez-Gil, 2011. "Neural Networks, Ordered Probit Models and Multiple Discriminants. Evaluating Risk Rating Forecasts of Local Governments in Mexico," Working Papers 1, Centro de Investigación e Inteligencia Económica (CIIE), Departamento de Ciencias Sociales - UPAEP.

    More about this item


    Credit rating changes; municipal bond returns; CAPM; EGARCH-in-Mean;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • H74 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Borrowing
    • H77 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - Intergovernmental Relations; Federalism


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ifweej:200938. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.