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How COVID-19 affects voting for incumbents: Evidence from local elections in France

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  • Morisi, Davide
  • Cloléry, Héloïse
  • Kon Kam King, Guillaume
  • Schaub, Max

Abstract

How do voters react to an ongoing natural threat? Do voters sanction or reward incumbents even when incumbents cannot be held accountable because an unforeseeable natural disaster is unfolding? We address this question by investigating voters’ reactions to the early spread of COVID-19 in the 2020 French municipal elections. Using a novel, fine-grained measure of the circulation of the virus based on excess-mortality data, we find that support for incumbents increased in areas that were particularly hard hit by the virus. Incumbents from both left and right gained votes in areas more strongly affected by COVID-19. We provide suggestive evidence for two mechanisms that can explain our findings: an emotional channel related to feelings of fear and anxiety, and a prospective-voting channel, related to the ability of incumbents to act more swiftly against the diffusion of the virus than challengers.

Suggested Citation

  • Morisi, Davide & Cloléry, Héloïse & Kon Kam King, Guillaume & Schaub, Max, 2024. "How COVID-19 affects voting for incumbents: Evidence from local elections in France," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 19(3), pages 1-19.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:espost:312942
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0297432
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Eniro Asemota & Patrick Mellacher & Stefania Rossi, 2025. "Covid-19 and Right-wing Vote Share: Evidence from the European Elections in Austria, Italy, and Sweden," Graz Economics Papers 2025-10, University of Graz, Department of Economics.
    2. Jeffrey Clemens & Julia Payson & Stan Veuger, 2026. "Aid for incumbents: the electoral consequences of COVID-19 relief," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 206(3), pages 363-390, March.

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