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Unraveling the Intricate Impact of Aging and Healthy Life Expectancy on Carbon Productivity in NEXT‐11 Countries

Author

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  • Busra Agan Celik
  • Stephen Obinozie Ogwu
  • Serdar Celik

Abstract

This study investigates the dynamic effects of population aging and healthy life expectancy (SDG 3) on carbon productivity within the framework of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in NEXT‐11 emerging economies from 1990 to 2023. The analysis employs the Panel Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag (P‐QARDL) model, a method well suited for capturing nonlinear, heterogeneous, and asymmetric relationships across different levels of carbon productivity. Education is included as a moderating factor, with income (SDG 8), education (SDG 4), energy efficiency (SDG 7), and climate risk (SDG 13) as controls. The short‐run results indicate that healthy life expectancy raises carbon productivity at higher quantiles, whereas population aging reduces productivity in more environmentally efficient economies. Income consistently supports productivity, while education and climate risk show no significant short‐run effects. In the long run, aging negatively affects countries with lower carbon productivity, while healthy life expectancy shows a U‐shaped effect. Education alone reduces productivity at mid quantiles but plays a positive moderating role by mitigating aging's adverse effects through enhanced human capital and labor adaptability. This study contributes novel quantile‐based evidence and calls for integrated policies, such as investing in environmentally focused education and health systems, to promote quality of life and sustainable demographic and environmental outcomes in emerging economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Busra Agan Celik & Stephen Obinozie Ogwu & Serdar Celik, 2026. "Unraveling the Intricate Impact of Aging and Healthy Life Expectancy on Carbon Productivity in NEXT‐11 Countries," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(S1), pages 1043-1066, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:sustdv:v:34:y:2026:i:s1:p:1043-1066
    DOI: 10.1002/sd.70223
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