IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/riskan/v37y2017i5p982-1004.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Validating Resilience and Vulnerability Indices in the Context of Natural Disasters

Author

Listed:
  • Laura A. Bakkensen
  • Cate Fox‐Lent
  • Laura K. Read
  • Igor Linkov

Abstract

Due to persistent and serious threats from natural disasters around the globe, many have turned to resilience and vulnerability research to guide disaster preparation, recovery, and adaptation decisions. In response, scholars and practitioners have put forth a variety of disaster indices, based on quantifiable metrics, to gauge levels of resilience and vulnerability. However, few indices are empirically validated using observed disaster impacts and, as a result, it is often unclear which index should be preferred for each decision at hand. Thus, we compare and empirically validate five of the top U.S. disaster indices, including three resilience indices and two vulnerability indices. We use observed disaster losses, fatalities, and disaster declarations from the southeastern United States to empirically validate each index. We find that disaster indices, though thoughtfully substantiated by literature and theoretically persuasive, are not all created equal. While four of the five indices perform as predicted in explaining damages, only three explain fatalities and only two explain disaster declarations as expected by theory. These results highlight the need for disaster indices to clearly state index objectives and structure underlying metrics to support validation of the results based on these goals. Further, policymakers should use index results carefully when developing regional policy or investing in resilience and vulnerability improvement projects.

Suggested Citation

  • Laura A. Bakkensen & Cate Fox‐Lent & Laura K. Read & Igor Linkov, 2017. "Validating Resilience and Vulnerability Indices in the Context of Natural Disasters," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(5), pages 982-1004, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:37:y:2017:i:5:p:982-1004
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.12677
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12677
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/risa.12677?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christopher G. Burton, 2015. "A Validation of Metrics for Community Resilience to Natural Hazards and Disasters Using the Recovery from Hurricane Katrina as a Case Study," Annals of the American Association of Geographers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 105(1), pages 67-86, January.
    2. Sabrina Larkin & Cate Fox-Lent & Daniel A. Eisenberg & Benjamin D. Trump & Sean Wallace & Colin Chadderton & Igor Linkov, 2015. "Benchmarking agency and organizational practices in resilience decision making," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 185-195, June.
    3. Susan Cutter, 2016. "The landscape of disaster resilience indicators in the USA," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(2), pages 741-758, January.
    4. Stephane Hallegatte & Colin Green & Robert J. Nicholls & Jan Corfee-Morlot, 2013. "Future flood losses in major coastal cities," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(9), pages 802-806, September.
    5. World Bank & United Nations, 2010. "Natural Hazards, UnNatural Disasters : The Economics of Effective Prevention," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2512.
    6. Christophe Kamps, 2006. "New Estimates of Government Net Capital Stocks for 22 OECD Countries, 1960-2001," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(1), pages 1-6.
    7. Eduardo Cavallo & Ilan Noy, 2009. "The Economics of Natural Disasters: A Survey," Research Department Publications 4649, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    8. Igor Linkov & Todd Bridges & Felix Creutzig & Jennifer Decker & Cate Fox-Lent & Wolfgang Kröger & James H. Lambert & Anders Levermann & Benoit Montreuil & Jatin Nathwani & Raymond Nyer & Ortwin Renn &, 2014. "Changing the resilience paradigm," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(6), pages 407-409, June.
    9. Igor Linkov & Daniel A. Eisenberg & Kenton Plourde & Thomas P. Seager & Julia Allen & Alex Kott, 2013. "Resilience metrics for cyber systems," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 471-476, December.
    10. Christopher W. Landsea, 2005. "Hurricanes and global warming," Nature, Nature, vol. 438(7071), pages 11-12, December.
    11. Roege, Paul E. & Collier, Zachary A. & Mancillas, James & McDonagh, John A. & Linkov, Igor, 2014. "Metrics for energy resilience," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 249-256.
    12. Susan L. Cutter & Bryan J. Boruff & W. Lynn Shirley, 2003. "Social Vulnerability to Environmental Hazards," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 84(2), pages 242-261, June.
    13. Cavallo, Eduardo & Noy, Ilan, 2011. "Natural Disasters and the Economy — A Survey," International Review of Environmental and Resource Economics, now publishers, vol. 5(1), pages 63-102, May.
    14. Matthew E. Kahn, 2005. "The Death Toll from Natural Disasters: The Role of Income, Geography, and Institutions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(2), pages 271-284, May.
    15. Cate Fox-Lent & Matthew E. Bates & Igor Linkov, 2015. "A matrix approach to community resilience assessment: an illustrative case at Rockaway Peninsula," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 209-218, June.
    16. Laura A. Bakkensen & Robert O. Mendelsohn, 2016. "Risk and Adaptation: Evidence from Global Hurricane Damages and Fatalities," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(3), pages 555-587.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jesse M. Keenan, 2018. "Regional resilience trust funds: an exploratory analysis for leveraging insurance surcharges," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 118-139, March.
    2. Rio Yonson & Ilan Noy & JC Gaillard, 2018. "The measurement of disaster risk: An example from tropical cyclones in the Philippines," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 736-765, May.
    3. Leslie Gillespie‐Marthaler & Katherine Nelson & Hiba Baroud & Mark Abkowitz, 2019. "Selecting Indicators for Assessing Community Sustainable Resilience," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(11), pages 2479-2498, November.
    4. Anousheh Alamir & Tillmann Heidelk, 2020. "Natural Disasters and Education," Working Papers ECARES 2020-05, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    5. Thomas Steinwachs, 2019. "Geography Matters: Spatial Dimensions of Trade, Migration and Growth," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 81.
    6. Wood, Matthew D. & Wells, Emily M. & Rice, Glenn & Linkov, Igor, 2019. "Quantifying and mapping resilience within large organizations," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 117-126.
    7. Jhorland Ayala‐García & Sandy Dall'Erba, 2022. "The impact of preemptive investment on natural disasters," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 101(5), pages 1087-1103, October.
    8. Matteo Coronese & Davide Luzzati, 2022. "Economic impacts of natural hazards and complexity science: a critical review," LEM Papers Series 2022/13, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    9. Richard S. J. Tol, 2021. "The Economic Impact of Climate in the Long Run," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anil Markandya & Dirk Rübbelke (ed.), CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT, chapter 1, pages 3-36, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    10. Tauisi Taupo & Ilan Noy, 2017. "At the Very Edge of a Storm: The Impact of a Distant Cyclone on Atoll Islands," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 143-166, July.
    11. Davlasheridze, Meri & Fisher-Vanden, Karen & Allen Klaiber, H., 2017. "The effects of adaptation measures on hurricane induced property losses: Which FEMA investments have the highest returns?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 93-114.
    12. Mujjuni, F. & Betts, T. & To, L.S. & Blanchard, R.E., 2021. "Resilience a means to development: A resilience assessment framework and a catalogue of indicators," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    13. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Gröschl, Jasmin & Sanders, Mark & Schippers, Vincent & Steinwachs, Thomas, 2018. "Shedding Light on the Spatial Diffusion of Disasters," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181556, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    14. Vittorio Piazzi & Francesco Pagliacci & Margherita Russo, 2015. "Analisi cluster delle caratteristiche socio-economiche dei comuni dell'Emilia-Romagna: un confronto tra comuni dentro e fuori dal cratere del sisma," Center for the Analysis of Public Policies (CAPP) 0120, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    15. Margherita Russo & Francesco Pagliacci, 2016. "Socio-economic effects of an earthquake:does sub-regional counterfactual sampling matter in estimates? An empirical test on the 2012 Emilia-Romagna earthquake," Center for the Analysis of Public Policies (CAPP) 0139, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    16. SAWADA Yasuyuki & MASAKI Tatsujiro & NAKATA Hiroyuki & SEKIGUCHI Kunio, 2017. "Natural Disasters: Financial preparedness of corporate Japan," Discussion papers 17014, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    17. Tauisi Taupo & Harold Cuffe & Ilan Noy, 2018. "Household vulnerability on the frontline of climate change: the Pacific atoll nation of Tuvalu," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 20(4), pages 705-739, October.
    18. Ivo Häring & Mirjam Fehling-Kaschek & Natalie Miller & Katja Faist & Sebastian Ganter & Kushal Srivastava & Aishvarya Kumar Jain & Georg Fischer & Kai Fischer & Jörg Finger & Alexander Stolz & Tobias , 2021. "A performance-based tabular approach for joint systematic improvement of risk control and resilience applied to telecommunication grid, gas network, and ultrasound localization system," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 286-329, June.
    19. Pauline AVRIL & Grégory LEVIEUGE & Camélia TURCU, 2021. "Natural Disasters and Financial Stress: Can Macroprudential Regulation Tame Green Swans?," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2913, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    20. Richard S. J. Tol, 2022. "State capacity and vulnerability to natural disasters," Chapters, in: Mark Skidmore (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Disasters, chapter 20, pages 434-457, Edward Elgar Publishing.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:37:y:2017:i:5:p:982-1004. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1539-6924 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.