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Uncertainty and Variability in Health‐Related Damages from Coal‐Fired Power Plants in the United States

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  • Jonathan I. Levy
  • Lisa K. Baxter
  • Joel Schwartz

Abstract

The health‐related damages associated with emissions from coal‐fired power plants can vary greatly across facilities as a function of plant, site, and population characteristics, but the degree of variability and the contributing factors have not been formally evaluated. In this study, we modeled the monetized damages associated with 407 coal‐fired power plants in the United States, focusing on premature mortality from fine particulate matter (PM2.5). We applied a reduced‐form chemistry‐transport model accounting for primary PM2.5 emissions and the influence of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions on secondary particulate formation. Outputs were linked with a concentration‐response function for PM2.5‐related mortality that incorporated nonlinearities and model uncertainty. We valued mortality with a value of statistical life approach, characterizing and propagating uncertainties in all model elements. At the median of the plant‐specific uncertainty distributions, damages across plants ranged from $30,000 to $500,000 per ton of PM2.5, $6,000 to $50,000 per ton of SO2, $500 to $15,000 per ton of NOx, and $0.02 to $1.57 per kilowatt‐hour of electricity generated. Variability in damages per ton of emissions was almost entirely explained by population exposure per unit emissions (intake fraction), which itself was related to atmospheric conditions and the population size at various distances from the power plant. Variability in damages per kilowatt‐hour was highly correlated with SO2 emissions, related to fuel and control technology characteristics, but was also correlated with atmospheric conditions and population size at various distances. Our findings emphasize that control strategies that consider variability in damages across facilities would yield more efficient outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan I. Levy & Lisa K. Baxter & Joel Schwartz, 2009. "Uncertainty and Variability in Health‐Related Damages from Coal‐Fired Power Plants in the United States," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(7), pages 1000-1014, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:29:y:2009:i:7:p:1000-1014
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01227.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Muller, Nicholas Z., 2019. "The derivation of discount rates with an augmented measure of income," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 87-101.
    2. Ying Zhou & James Hammitt & Joshua S. Fu & Yang Gao & Yang Liu & Jonathan I. Levy, 2014. "Major Factors Influencing the Health Impacts from Controlling Air Pollutants with Nonlinear Chemistry: An Application to China," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(4), pages 683-697, April.
    3. Tibebu, Tiruwork B. & Hittinger, Eric & Miao, Qing & Williams, Eric, 2021. "What is the optimal subsidy for residential solar?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    4. Xu, Yan & Dietzenbacher, Erik & Los, Bart, 2020. "International trade and air pollution damages in the United States," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    5. Hengzhen Wang & Ying Xu & Zhongkai Yi & Jianing Xu & Yilin Xie & Zhimin Li, 2024. "A Review on Economic Dispatch of Power System Considering Atmospheric Pollutant Emissions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(8), pages 1-30, April.
    6. Howard, D.B. & Soria, R. & Thé, J. & Schaeffer, R. & Saphores, J.-D., 2020. "The energy-climate-health nexus in energy planning: A case study in Brazil," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    7. Zhang, Xiang & Jin, Yana & Dai, Hancheng & Xie, Yang & Zhang, Shiqiu, 2019. "Health and economic benefits of cleaner residential heating in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 165-178.
    8. Thomson, Vivian E. & Huelsman, Kelsey & Ong, Dominique, 2018. "Coal-fired power plant regulatory rollback in the United States: Implications for local and regional public health," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 558-568.
    9. Jha, Akshaya & Muller, Nicholas Z., 2018. "The local air pollution cost of coal storage and handling: Evidence from U.S. power plants," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 360-396.

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