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Jobs or jails? The crime drop in Texas

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  • William Spelman

    (University of Texas, Austin)

Abstract

Crime went down throughout the U.S. in the 1990s. Potential explanations include demographic shifts, improved economic opportunities, changes in drug markets, evolving police strategies, and an increasing prison population. Previous attempts to parcel out responsibility among these explanations are unpersuasive. Some do not consider all of the explanations, others rely on highly aggregated data, still others confuse cause and effect. An analysis of Texas counties that deals with these problems shows that the Texas crime drop was largely due to increases in the jail and prison population; property crime also dropped due to increases in real wages and wealth and in public order arrests. Further prison construction would not be cost-effective in Texas due to declining marginal returns, but direct interventions to improve economic opportunities or make police work more proactive may be. © 2005 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.

Suggested Citation

  • William Spelman, 2005. "Jobs or jails? The crime drop in Texas," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 133-165.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jpamgt:v:24:y:2005:i:1:p:133-165
    DOI: 10.1002/pam.20073
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Catalina Gómez Toro & Hermilson Velásquez & Joaquín Andrés Urrego & Juan David Valderrama, 2014. "Efecto de los Ingresos Permanentes sobre el Delito: Un Enfoque Espacial y un Caso de Aplicación," Documentos de Trabajo CIEF 10900, Universidad EAFIT.
    2. William T. Gormley Jr., 2007. "Early childhood care and education: Lessons and puzzles," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 633-671.
    3. Steven N. Durlauf & Daniel S. Nagin, 2010. "The Deterrent Effect of Imprisonment," NBER Chapters, in: Controlling Crime: Strategies and Tradeoffs, pages 43-94, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Jack Glaser, 2006. "The efficacy and effect of racial profiling: A mathematical simulation approach," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(2), pages 395-416.
    5. repec:esx:essedp:737 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Mauro Costantini & Iris Meco & Antonio Paradiso, 2016. "Common trends in the US state-level crime.What do panel data say?," Working Papers 2016:14, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    7. Philip A. Curry & Anindya Sen & George Orlov, 2016. "Crime, apprehension and clearance rates: Panel data evidence from Canadian provinces," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 49(2), pages 481-514, May.
    8. Yu Liu & Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. & Nathan J. Ashby, 2013. "Assessing The Impacts Of Labor Market And Deterrence Variables On Crime Rates In Mexico," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 31(4), pages 669-690, October.
    9. Rosalia Condorelli, 2013. "Applied nonlinear dynamical system in social science. A nonlinear model for social control system: an application to Italian coercion system," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 1173-1198, February.
    10. Kangoh Lee, 2018. "Unemployment and crime: the role of apprehension," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 59-80, February.
    11. Patrick T Brandt & Tomislav V Kovandzic, 2015. "Messing Up Texas?: A Re-Analysis of the Effects of Executions on Homicides," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(9), pages 1-19, September.
    12. Thomas B. Marvell, 2010. "Prison Population and Crime," Chapters, in: Bruce L. Benson & Paul R. Zimmerman (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Crime, chapter 7, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. O’Flaherty, Brendan & Sethi, Rajiv, 2015. "Urban Crime," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 1519-1621, Elsevier.

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