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Long‐Run Effects of Dynamically Assigned Treatments: A New Methodology and an Evaluation of Training Effects on Earnings

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  • Gerard J. van den Berg
  • Johan Vikström

Abstract

We propose and implement a new method to estimate treatment effects in settings where individuals need to be in a certain state (e.g., unemployment) to be eligible for a treatment, treatments may commence at different points in time, and the outcome of interest is realized after the individual left the initial state. An example concerns the effect of training on earnings in subsequent employment. Any evaluation needs to take into account that some of those who are not trained at a certain time in unemployment will leave unemployment before training while others will be trained later. We are interested in effects of the treatment at a certain elapsed duration compared to “no treatment at any subsequent duration.” We prove identification under unconfoundedness and propose inverse probability weighting estimators. A key feature is that weights given to outcome observations of nontreated depend on the remaining time in the initial state. We study effects of a training program for unemployed workers in Sweden. Estimates are positive and sizeable, exceeding those obtained with common static methods. This calls for a reappraisal of training as a tool to bring unemployed back to work.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerard J. van den Berg & Johan Vikström, 2022. "Long‐Run Effects of Dynamically Assigned Treatments: A New Methodology and an Evaluation of Training Effects on Earnings," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(3), pages 1337-1354, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:emetrp:v:90:y:2022:i:3:p:1337-1354
    DOI: 10.3982/ECTA17522
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Michael Lechner & Ruth Miquel & Conny Wunsch, 2011. "Long‐Run Effects Of Public Sector Sponsored Training In West Germany," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 742-784, August.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Canzian, Giulia & Meroni, Elena Claudia & Santangelo, Giulia, 2023. "Evaluation of a Flemish Active Labour Market Policy in the framework of the European Social Fund. Results and challenges," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    3. Humlum, Anders & Munch, Jakob R. & Rasmussen, Mette, 2023. "What Works for the Unemployed? Evidence from Quasi-Random Caseworker Assignments," IZA Discussion Papers 16033, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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