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Explaining the 2016 Vote for President Trump across U.S. Counties

Author

Listed:
  • Stephan J. Goetz
  • Meri Davlasheridze
  • Yicheol Han
  • David A. Fleming-Muñoz

Abstract

We examine how county characteristics affected voting outcomes in the 2016 presidential election, including the populist component represented by the President Trump to Mitt Romney vote difference. Different voter groups could be harmed or helped by policies proposed during the campaign, such as withdrawal from trade agreements, environmental deregulation, and spending cuts. We investigate whether average county‐level voting patterns reflected such proposals. Race and educational attainment had large statistical impacts, but economic factors and religious adherence also mattered. The Trump vote share and Trump‐Romney vote margin were larger in counties with more farming and coal employment.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephan J. Goetz & Meri Davlasheridze & Yicheol Han & David A. Fleming-Muñoz, 2019. "Explaining the 2016 Vote for President Trump across U.S. Counties," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(4), pages 703-722, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:apecpp:v:41:y:2019:i:4:p:703-722
    DOI: 10.1093/aepp/ppy026
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Neil Lee & Cornelius Lipp, 2021. "Golfing with Trump. Social capital, decline, inequality, and the rise of populism in the US," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 14(3), pages 457-481.

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