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Demographics and the current account

Author

Listed:
  • Joschka Gerigk
  • Miriam Rinawi

  • Adrien Wicht

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between demographics and the current account. We analyze the impact of recent demographic changes and provide a forecast of its future impact. Overall, we find a strong and robust, non-linear demographic effect. In particular, we find a positive association between the current account and the share of a population's prime-age individuals and a negative association with the share of the elderly. Our forecast suggests that, given the dramatically aging population in most industrialized countries, demographics will likely decrease the current account balance in the near future in those countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Joschka Gerigk & Miriam Rinawi & Adrien Wicht, 2018. "Demographics and the current account," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 69(01), pages 45-76, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:usg:auswrt:2018:69:01:45-76
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Johannes Eugster & Giovanni Donato, 2022. "The exchange rate elasticity of the Swiss current account," Working Papers 2022-14, Swiss National Bank.
    2. Miriam Koomen & Laurence Wicht, 2020. "Demographics, pension systems, and the current account: an empirical assessment using the IMF current account model," Working Papers 2020-23, Swiss National Bank.
    3. Miriam Koomen & Laurence Wicht, 2023. "Demographics and Current Account Imbalances: Accounting for the Full Age Distribution," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(3), pages 719-758, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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