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Uncertainty, Hiring, and Subsequent Performance: The NFL Draft

Author

Listed:
  • Wallace Hendricks

    (University of Illinois)

  • Lawrence DeBrock

    (University of Illinois)

  • Roger Koenker

    (University of Illinois)

Abstract

In this article, we analyze the impact of uncertainty on the hiring process. We show the connection between models of statistical discrimination where uncertainty can work against groups that have less reliable indicators of future productivity and models of option value where uncertainty about future productivity can be beneficial for these groups. These models generate hypotheses about the relationship between ex ante hiring patterns and ex post productivity. This is applied to the market for NFL football players. We provide various estimates of NFL success, which suggest that statistical discrimination and option value influence choices in this market.

Suggested Citation

  • Wallace Hendricks & Lawrence DeBrock & Roger Koenker, 2003. "Uncertainty, Hiring, and Subsequent Performance: The NFL Draft," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 21(4), pages 857-886, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jlabec:v:21:y:2003:i:4:p:857-886
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/377025
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Maarten Vendrik & Christiane Schwieren, 2010. "Identification, screening and stereotyping in labour market discrimination," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 99(2), pages 141-171, March.
    2. repec:eee:jeborg:v:142:y:2017:i:c:p:105-119 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. R Simmons & D Berri, 2007. "Does it pay to specialize? The story from the Gridiron," Working Papers 591134, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    4. Blasco, Sylvie & Pertold-Gebicka, Barbara, 2013. "Employment policies, hiring practices and firm performance," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 12-24.
    5. Borghesi, Richard, 2008. "Allocation of scarce resources: Insight from the NFL salary cap," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 60(6), pages 536-550.
    6. Dennis Coates & Babatunde Oguntimein, 2010. "The Length and Success of NBA Careers: Does College Production Predict Professional Outcomes?," International Journal of Sport Finance, Fitness Information Technology, vol. 5(1), pages 4-26, February.
    7. Oyer, Paul & Schaefer, Scott, 2011. "Personnel Economics: Hiring and Incentives," Handbook of Labor Economics, Elsevier.
    8. Ichniowski, Casey & Preston, Anne, 2017. "Does March Madness lead to irrational exuberance in the NBA draft? High-value employee selection decisions and decision-making bias," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 105-119.
    9. Camelia M. Kuhnen & Paul Oyer, 2016. "Exploration for Human Capital: Evidence from the MBA Labor Market," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(S2), pages 255-286.
    10. Benno Torgler, 2004. "?La Grande Boucle?: Determinants of Success at the Tour de France," CREMA Working Paper Series 2004-22, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA), revised May 2005.
    11. David J. Berri & Brad R. Humphreys & Robert Simmons, 2013. "Valuing the blind side: pay and performance of offensive linemen in the National Football League," Chapters,in: The Econometrics of Sport, chapter 6, pages 99-114 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    12. Scott Tainsky & Brian M. Mills & Jason A. Winfree, 2015. "Further Examination of Potential Discrimination Among MLB Umpires," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 16(4), pages 353-374, May.
    13. Chen Liang & Yili Hong & Bin Gu, 2017. "Home Bias in Global Employment," Working Papers 17-06, NET Institute.
    14. Kuhnen, Camelia M. & Oyer, Paul, 2012. "Exploration for human capital: Theory and evidence from the MBA labor market," MPRA Paper 39411, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Brad R. Humphreys & Jie Yang, 2014. "Peer Enforcement in Teams: Evidence from High-Skill Professional Workers with Repeated Interactions," Working Papers 14-24, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
    16. Kevin G. Quinn & Melissa Geier & Anne Berkovitz, 2007. "Passing on Success? Productivity Outcomes for Quarterbacks Chosen in the 1999-2004 National Football League Player Entry Drafts," IASE Conference Papers 0711, International Association of Sports Economists.
    17. Julianne Treme & Samuel K. Allen, 2009. "Widely Received: Payoffs to Player Attributes in the NFL," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(3), pages 1631-1643.
    18. Boulier, Bryan L. & Stekler, H.O. & Coburn, Jason & Rankins, Timothy, 2010. "Evaluating National Football League draft choices: The passing game," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 589-605, July.
    19. repec:kap:revind:v:52:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s11151-017-9602-z is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Borland, Jeff & Lee, Leng & Macdonald, Robert D., 2011. "Escalation effects and the player draft in the AFL," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 371-380, June.

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