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Structural Breaks, Parameter Stability and Energy Demand Modeling in Nigeria

  • Olusegun A. Omisakin

    ()

    (Department of Economics and Business Studies, Redeemer's University; and Centre for Econometric and Allied Research (CEAR), University of Ibadan, Nigeria)

  • Oluwatosin A. Adeniyi

    ()

    (Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa, Nigeria)

  • Abimbola M. Oyinlola

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of Ibadan, Nigeria)

This paper extends previous studies in modeling and estimating energy demand functions for both gasoline and kerosene petroleum products for Nigeria from 1977 to 2008. In contrast to earlier studies on Nigeria and other developing countries, this study specifically tests for the possibility of structural breaks/regime shifts and parameter instability in the energy demand functions using more recent and robust techniques. In addition, the study considers an alternative model specification which primarily captures the price-income interaction effects on both gasoline and kerosene demand functions. While the conventional residual-based cointegration tests employed fail to identify any meaningful long run relationship in both functions, the Gregory-Hansen structural break cointegration approach confirms the cointegration relationships despite the breakpoints. Both functions are also found to be stable under the period studied. The elasticity estimates also follow the a priori expectation being inelastic both in the long- and short run for the two functions.

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Article provided by Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology (EMATTECH), Kavala, Greece in its journal International Journal of Economic Sciences and Applied Research (IJESAR).

Volume (Year): 5 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 (August)
Pages: 129-144

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Handle: RePEc:tei:journl:v:5:y:2012:i:2:p:129-144
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  1. Akinboade, Oludele A. & Ziramba, Emmanuel & Kumo, Wolassa L., 2008. "The demand for gasoline in South Africa: An empirical analysis using co-integration techniques," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 3222-3229, November.
  2. Allan W. Gregory & James M. Nason, 1991. "Testing for Structural Breaks," Working Papers 827, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
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  4. James G. MacKinnon & Alfred A. Haug & Leo Michelis, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Working Papers 1996_07, York University, Department of Economics.
  5. Iwayemi, Akin & Adenikinju, Adeola & Babatunde, M. Adetunji, 2010. "Estimating petroleum products demand elasticities in Nigeria: A multivariate cointegration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 73-85, January.
  6. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
  7. Alves, Denisard C. O. & De Losso da Silveira Bueno, Rodrigo, 2003. "Short-run, long-run and cross elasticities of gasoline demand in Brazil," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 191-199, March.
  8. Bentzen, Jan & Engsted, Tom, 2001. "A revival of the autoregressive distributed lag model in estimating energy demand relationships," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 45-55.
  9. Ferda Halicioglu, 2007. "The demand for new housing in Turkey: an application of ARDL model," Global Business and Economics Review, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(1), pages 62-74.
  10. De Vita, G. & Endresen, K. & Hunt, L.C., 2006. "An empirical analysis of energy demand in Namibia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 3447-3463, December.
  11. Halicioglu, Ferda, 2007. "Residential electricity demand dynamics in Turkey," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 199-210, March.
  12. Polemis, Michael L., 2006. "Empirical assessment of the determinants of road energy demand in Greece," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 385-403, May.
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