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Does beta react to market conditions? Estimates of 'bull' and 'bear' betas using a nonlinear market model with an endogenous threshold parameter


  • George Woodward
  • Heather Anderson


The authors use a logistic smooth transition market (LSTM) model to investigate whether 'bull' and 'bear' market betas for Australian industry portfolios returns differ. The LSTM model allows the data to determine a threshold parameter that differentiates between 'bull' and 'bear' states, and it also allows for smooth transition between these two states. Their results indicate that 'bull' and 'bear' betas are significantly different for most industries, and that up-market risk is not always lower than down-market risk. LSTM models indicate that the transition between 'bull' and 'bear' states is abrupt, supporting a dual-beta market modelling framework.

Suggested Citation

  • George Woodward & Heather Anderson, 2009. "Does beta react to market conditions? Estimates of 'bull' and 'bear' betas using a nonlinear market model with an endogenous threshold parameter," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(8), pages 913-924.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:9:y:2009:i:8:p:913-924 DOI: 10.1080/14697680802595643

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages 119-136, Suppl. De.
    2. Neftci, Salih N, 1984. "Are Economic Time Series Asymmetric over the Business Cycle?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(2), pages 307-328, April.
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    1. Richard Copp & Michael L. Kremmer & Eduardo Roca, 2010. "Should funds invest in socially responsible investments during downturns?: Financial and legal implications of the fund manager's dilemma," Accounting Research Journal, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 23(3), pages 254-266, November.
    2. José Soares Da Fonseca, 2016. "Euro area stock markets performance comparison and its dependence on macroeconomic variables," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(3), pages 245-266.
    3. Janusz Brzeszczyński & Graham McIntosh, 2014. "Performance of Portfolios Composed of British SRI Stocks," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 120(3), pages 335-362, March.
    4. Mohammad, Nazeeruddin & Ashraf, Dawood, 2015. "The market timing ability and return performance of Islamic equities: An empirical study," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 169-183.
    5. Dumitriu, Ramona & Stefanescu, Razvan & Nistor, Costel, 2010. "Systematic risks for the financial and for the non-financial Romanian companies," MPRA Paper 41636, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Feb 2010.
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    7. Saumitra N. Bhaduri & S. Raja Sethu Durai, 2006. "Asymmetric beta in bull and bear market conditions: evidences from India," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 55-59, January.
    8. Fiechter, Peter & Zhou, Jie, 2016. "The Impact of the Greek Sovereign Debt Crisis on European Banks' Disclosure and its Economic Consequences," The International Journal of Accounting, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 85-117.
    9. Huang, MeiChi & Chiang, Hsiu-Hsuan, 2017. "An early alarm system for housing bubbles," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 34-49.

    More about this item


    Bull and bear betas; Dual-beta market (DBM); Models; Linearity tests; Logistic smooth transition market (LSTM) models; Sequential conditional least squares (SCLS);

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation


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