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Measuring the trade effects of the euro in Central and Eastern Europe

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  • Andrzej Cieślik
  • Jan Jakub Michałek
  • Jerzy Mycielski

Abstract

We study trade effects of the euro adoption in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). We employ a gravity model that controls for an extended set of trade theory and policy variables. The gravity model is estimated using the panel data approach on a sample of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and CEE countries trading with the rest of the world during the period 1993--2008. We find that the adoption of the euro results in trade expansion for the CEE countries. This result is driven by elimination of exchange rate volatility and accession to the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). However, our forecasts show that this effect is short-lived.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrzej Cieślik & Jan Jakub Michałek & Jerzy Mycielski, 2012. "Measuring the trade effects of the euro in Central and Eastern Europe," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 25-49, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:jitecd:v:21:y:2012:i:1:p:25-49
    DOI: 10.1080/09638199.2012.642527
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/09638199.2012.642527
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Maryla Maliszewska, 2004. "New Member States' Trading Potential Following EMU Accession: A Gravity Approach," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0286, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew K. Rose, 2017. "Why do Estimates of the EMU Effect on Trade Vary so Much?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 1-18, February.
    2. Cieślik Andrzej & Michałek Jan & Michałek Anna, 2014. "Does the Common Currency Increase Exports? Evidence from Firm-Level Data," International Journal of Management and Economics, De Gruyter Open, vol. 41(1), pages 8-22, March.
    3. Mohd Hussain Kunroo & Irfan Ahmad Sofi & Naushad Ali Azad, 2016. "Trade implications of the Euro in EMU countries: a panel gravity analysis," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 43(2), pages 391-413, May.
    4. repec:eee:joecas:v:13:y:2016:i:c:p:8-20 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Andrzej Cieslik & Jan Michalek & Anna Michalek, 2013. "The Impact Of The Common Currency On Exports Of New Emu Members: Firm-Level Evidence For Slovenia And Slovakia," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 8(4), pages 7-23, December.
    6. Mohd Hussain Kunrooa & Naushad Ali Azad, 2015. "Impact of Single Currency Adoption on Trade Flows: The Panel Data Evidence," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 3(9), pages 433-439, September.

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