IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/jitecd/v14y2005i3p271-280.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The conflicting impacts of export fluctuations and diversification programmes

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Webb

Abstract

While analyses of export instability and diversification policies typically focus on aggregate earnings, a conflict can arise between income instability at the aggregate and household levels. Diversification can reduce a country's aggregate income instability and simultaneously increase the instability experienced by many households, and perhaps by every household in the country. We demonstrate how alternative export portfolios can produce this conflict in instability. The conflict means that the conclusions from previous empirical studies need to be qualified and policy recommendations need to be carefully formulated.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Webb, 2005. "The conflicting impacts of export fluctuations and diversification programmes," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 271-280.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jitecd:v:14:y:2005:i:3:p:271-280
    DOI: 10.1080/09638190500202965
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09638190500202965
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/09638190500202965?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Voivodas, Constantin S, 1974. "The Effect of Foreign Exchange Instability on Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 56(3), pages 410-412, August.
    2. Naya, Seiji, 1973. "Fluctuations in Export Earnings and Economic Patterns of Asian Countries," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 21(4), pages 629-641, Part I Ju.
    3. Lim, David, 1980. "Income Distribution, Export Instability, and Savings Behavior," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 28(2), pages 359-364, January.
    4. Massell, Benton F, 1970. "Export Instability and Economic Structure," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(4), pages 618-630, September.
    5. Deaton, Angus & Miller, Ron, 1996. "International Commodity Prices, Macroeconomic Performance and Politics in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 5(3), pages 99-191, October.
    6. M. Ayhan Kose & Raymond Riezman, 2013. "Trade shocks and macroeconomic fluctuations in Africa," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Raymond Riezman (ed.), International Trade Agreements and Political Economy, chapter 19, pages 369-394, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Reardon, Thomas & Delgado, Christopher & Matlon, Peter, 1991. "Determinants And Effects Of Income Diversification Amongst Farm Households In Burkina Faso," 1991 Annual Meeting, August 4-7, Manhattan, Kansas 271276, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    8. Edmund Sheehey, 1977. "Levels And Sources Of Export Instability: Some Recent Evidence," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 319-324, May.
    9. Jonathan Eaton & Gene M. Grossman, 1985. "Tariffs as Insurance: Optimal Commercial Policy When Domestic Markets Are Incomplete," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 18(2), pages 258-272, May.
    10. Prasad Bidarkota & Mario J. Crucini, 2000. "Commodity Prices and the Terms of Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(4), pages 647-666, November.
    11. Brundell, Peter & Horn, Henrik & Svedberg, Peter, 1981. "On the Causes of Instability in Export Earnings," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 43(3), pages 301-313, August.
    12. Rosenzweig, Mark R, 1988. "Risk, Implicit Contracts and the Family in Rural Areas of Low-income Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(393), pages 1148-1170, December.
    13. Wong, Chung Ming, 1986. "Models of export instability and empirical tests for less-developed countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 263-285, March.
    14. Ronald W. Jones, 2018. "The Structure of Simple General Equilibrium Models," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: International Trade Theory and Competitive Models Features, Values, and Criticisms, chapter 4, pages 61-84, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    15. Paul Cashin & C John McDermott & Alasdair Scott, 1999. "The myth of co-moving commodity prices," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/9, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    16. Murray, David, 1978. "Export Earnings Instability: Price, Quantity, Supply, Demand?," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(1), pages 61-73, October.
    17. Soutar, Geoffrey N., 1977. "Export instability and concentration in the less developed countries : A cross-sectional analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 279-297, September.
    18. Peter B. Kenen & Constantine S. Voivodas, 1972. "Export Instability And Economic Growth," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 791-804, November.
    19. Brainard, William C. & Cooper, Richard N., 1968. "Uncertainty and Diversification in International Trade," Food Research Institute Studies, Stanford University, Food Research Institute, vol. 8(3), pages 1-29.
    20. Lucas, Robert E B & Stark, Oded, 1985. "Motivations to Remit: Evidence from Botswana," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(5), pages 901-918, October.
    21. Turner, R E & Lambert, P J, 1981. "Commodity Concentration and Export Earnings Instability: A Comment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 91(363), pages 755-757, September.
    22. Glezakos, Constantine, 1973. "Export Instability and Economic Growth: A Statistical Verification," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 21(4), pages 670-678, Part I Ju.
    23. Bidarkota, Prasad & Crucini, Mario J, 2000. "Commodity Prices and the Terms of Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(4), pages 647-666, November.
    24. MacBean, A I & Nguyen, D T, 1980. "Commodity Concentration and Export Earnings Instability: A Mathematical Analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 354-362, June.
    25. Moran, Cristian, 1983. "Export fluctuations and economic growth : An empirical analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1-2), pages 195-218.
    26. Lim, David, 1976. "Export Instability and Economic Growth: A Return to Fundamentals," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 38(4), pages 311-322, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Montague J. Lord, 1980. "Commodity Export Instability and Growth in the Latin American Economies," NBER Chapters, in: Commodity Markets and Latin American Development: A Modeling Approach, pages 213-244, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Muhammad Aslam Chaudhary & Amjad Naveed, 2003. "Export Earnings, Capital Instability and Economic Growth in South Asia," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 65-89, Jan-June.
    3. M. Ayhan Kose & Raymond Riezman, 2013. "Trade shocks and macroeconomic fluctuations in Africa," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Raymond Riezman (ed.), International Trade Agreements and Political Economy, chapter 19, pages 369-394, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Sule Ozler & James Harrigan, 1988. "Export Instability and Growth," UCLA Economics Working Papers 486, UCLA Department of Economics.
    5. Christopher Blattman & Jason Hwang & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2004. "The Impact of the Terms of Trade on Economic Development in the Periphery, 1870-1939: Volatility and Secular Change," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2040, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    6. Hélène Ehrhart & Samuel Guérineau, 2012. "Commodity price volatility and Tax revenues: Evidence from developing countries," Working Papers halshs-00658210, HAL.
    7. Olajide S. Oladipo, 2017. "Export Instability and Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Time Series Analysis," Working Papers 322, African Economic Research Consortium, Research Department.
    8. Salvatore Schiavo-Campo, 1981. "Instability of developmental imports and economic growth : A theoretical framework," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 117(3), pages 562-573, September.
    9. Kose, M. Ayhan, 2002. "Explaining business cycles in small open economies: 'How much do world prices matter?'," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 299-327, March.
    10. Dehn, Jan, 2000. "The effects on growth of commodity price uncertainty and shocks," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2455, The World Bank.
    11. Shapouri, Shahla & Rosen, Stacey, 1989. "Export Performance In Africa," Staff Reports 278190, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    12. Asheghian Parviz, 2015. "Oil Revenues and Export Earnings Instability: The Evidence from Iran," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 15(3), pages 431-442, September.
    13. Cashin, Paul & Cespedes, Luis F. & Sahay, Ratna, 2004. "Commodity currencies and the real exchange rate," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 239-268, October.
    14. Zhang, Qiang & Reed, Michael R., 2006. "The Impact of Multiple Volatilities on Import Demand for U.S. Grain: The Case of Soybeans," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21079, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    15. Cashin, Paul & McDermott, C. John & Pattillo, Catherine, 2004. "Terms of trade shocks in Africa: are they short-lived or long-lived?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 727-744, April.
    16. Afxentiou, Panos & Serletis, Apostolos, 2000. "Output growth and the variability of exports and imports growth: international evidence from Granger causality tests," MPRA Paper 1750, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Dawe, David, 1996. "A new look at the effects of export instability on investment and growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 24(12), pages 1905-1914, December.
    18. Romero-Ávila, Diego, 2009. "Multiple Breaks, Terms of Trade Shocks and the Unit-Root Hypothesis for African Per Capita Real GDP," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1051-1068, June.
    19. Larson, Donald F. & Varangis, Panos & Yabuki, Nanae, 1998. "Commodity risk management and development," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1963, The World Bank.
    20. Peter Wilson, 1983. "The Consequences of Export Instability for Developing Countries — A Reappraisal," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 39-59, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:jitecd:v:14:y:2005:i:3:p:271-280. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RJTE20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.