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The conflicting impacts of export fluctuations and diversification programmes


  • Michael Webb


While analyses of export instability and diversification policies typically focus on aggregate earnings, a conflict can arise between income instability at the aggregate and household levels. Diversification can reduce a country's aggregate income instability and simultaneously increase the instability experienced by many households, and perhaps by every household in the country. We demonstrate how alternative export portfolios can produce this conflict in instability. The conflict means that the conclusions from previous empirical studies need to be qualified and policy recommendations need to be carefully formulated.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Webb, 2005. "The conflicting impacts of export fluctuations and diversification programmes," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 271-280.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:jitecd:v:14:y:2005:i:3:p:271-280 DOI: 10.1080/09638190500202965

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Soutar, Geoffrey N., 1977. "Export instability and concentration in the less developed countries : A cross-sectional analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 279-297, September.
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    7. Brundell, Peter & Horn, Henrik & Svedberg, Peter, 1981. "On the Causes of Instability in Export Earnings," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 43(3), pages 301-313, August.
    8. Paul Cashin & C John McDermott & Alasdair Scott, 1999. "The myth of co-moving commodity prices," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/9, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    9. Wong, Chung Ming, 1986. "Models of export instability and empirical tests for less-developed countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 263-285, March.
    10. Bidarkota, Prasad & Crucini, Mario J, 2000. "Commodity Prices and the Terms of Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(4), pages 647-666, November.
    11. Moran, Cristian, 1983. "Export fluctuations and economic growth : An empirical analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1-2), pages 195-218.
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