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Analysing Potential Effects of Preferential Liberalisation in Some Asian Emerging Economies

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  • Mohammad Kabir
  • Ruhul Salim

Abstract

This paper examines the ex-ante effects of possible trade liberalisation of some Asian emerging economies through forming a regional economic bloc called BIMSTEC by adopting SMART and GTAP models. Based on estimated export supply elasticity, the results of SMART simulation reveal that the highest net trade effect takes place for India, the biggest economy in the bloc, followed by Bangladesh for tariff elimination. The two countries also derive substantial welfare gains. The proportionate revenue loss is remarkably higher for smaller countries such as Nepal, Myanmar and Bangladesh. GTAP simulation suggests that Bangladesh incurs a net welfare loss by joining the FTA. The overall intra-bloc export is likely to increase. These results imply that there is a need for designing proper compensation mechanism and technical support for the smaller economies to offset the possible adverse effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohammad Kabir & Ruhul Salim, 2011. "Analysing Potential Effects of Preferential Liberalisation in Some Asian Emerging Economies," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(2), pages 191-213.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:intecj:v:25:y:2011:i:2:p:191-213
    DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2011.586805
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, December.
    2. Hertel, Thomas W. & Huff, Karen, 2001. "Decomposing Welfare Changes In The Gtap Model," Technical Papers 28708, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    3. Huff, Karen & Thomas W. Hertel, 2001. "Decomposing Welfare Changes in GTAP," GTAP Technical Papers 308, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    4. John Gilbert, 2008. "BIMSTEC-Japan Trade Cooperation and Poverty in Asia," Working Papers 200803, Utah State University, Department of Economics and Finance.
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    1. Ouraich, Ismail & Dudu, Hasan & Tyner, Wallace E. & Cakmak, Erol, 2014. "Could Free Trade Alleviate Effects of Climate Change: A Worldwide Analysis with Emphasis on Morocco and Turkey," Conference papers 332460, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    2. Foo, Nam & Lean, Hooi Hooi & Salim, Ruhul, 2020. "The impact of China’s one belt one road initiative on international trade in the ASEAN region," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    3. Athukorala, Premachandra & Riedel, James, 1994. "Demand and Supply Factors in the Determination of NIE Exports: A Simultaneous Error-Correction Model for Hong Kong: A Comment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(427), pages 1411-1414, November.
    4. Ouraich, Ismail & Dudu, Hasan & Tyner, Wallace E. & Cakmak, Erol, 2014. "Could free trade alleviate effects of climate change? A worldwide analysis with emphasis on Morocco and Turkey," WIDER Working Paper Series 100, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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