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A Simulation Model of Katouzian's Theory of Arbitrary State and Society

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  • Saeed P. Langarudi
  • Michael J. Radzicki

Abstract

This paper represents an initial effort to model the volatile behavior of Iran's socio-political-economic system. More specifically, Homa Katouzian's theory of Iranian political economy—a well-established descriptive theory of Iran's unstable economic development—is translated into a system dynamics model, tested for internal consistency, and used for policy analysis. Simulation results confirm Katouzian's claim that periodic episodes of significant arbitrary power are key to understanding the historically less-than-optimal behavior of the Iranian socioeconomic system. They also confirm the significance of oil revenue, economic sanctions, and civil resistance on Iranian economic development. Of note is that experimentation with the model reveals that educational policies that generate increased respect for the law by Iranian citizens can significantly improve the behavior of the Iranian socioeconomic system. The paper concludes with suggestions for future research.

Suggested Citation

  • Saeed P. Langarudi & Michael J. Radzicki, 2018. "A Simulation Model of Katouzian's Theory of Arbitrary State and Society," Forum for Social Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(1), pages 115-152, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:fosoec:v:47:y:2018:i:1:p:115-152
    DOI: 10.1080/07360932.2015.1051076
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jeffrey Frankel, 2012. "The Natural Resource Curse: A Survey of Diagnoses and Some Prescriptions," Growth Lab Working Papers 36, Harvard's Growth Lab.
    2. Gary Clyde Hufbauer & Kimberly Ann Elliott & Tess Cyrus & Elizabeth Winston, 1997. "US Economic Sanctions: Their Impact on Trade, Jobs, and Wages," Working Paper Series Working Paper Special (2), Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    3. Mr. Torbjorn I. Becker, 1999. "Common Trends and Structural Change: A Dynamic Macro Model for the Pre- and Postrevolution Islamic Republic of Iran," IMF Working Papers 1999/082, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Gary Clyde Hufbauer & Jeffrey J. Schott & Kimberly Ann Elliott, 2009. "Economic Sanctions Reconsidered, 3rd Edition (paper)," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 4129, July.
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    2. Oleg V. Pavlov & Jason M. Sardell, 2023. "Economic Origins of the Sicilian Mafia: A Simulation Feedback Model," Papers 2304.07975, arXiv.org.
    3. Oleg V Pavlov & Evangelos Katsamakas, 2020. "Will colleges survive the storm of declining enrollments? A computational model," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(8), pages 1-29, August.
    4. Langarudi, Saeed P. & Maxwell, Connie M. & Bai, Yining & Hanson, Austin & Fernald, Alexander, 2019. "Does Socioeconomic Feedback Matter for Water Models?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 35-45.

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