Time series and cross-section parameter stability in the market model: the implications for event studies
This paper investigates the time series and cross-section stability of parameter estimates from the single-index market model, using a UK data set relating to the security prices of parent companies, divesting in the form of a management buyout. A battery of tests of structural stability are undertaken, and we find that instability exists in the vast majority of the fitted models, both in relation to changes in the estimation period, and also to changes in the cross-section sample of firms included in this analysis. The implications of instability for the event study method are clearly illustrated by the construction of recursive cumulative abnormal return series. Our results suggest that when the market model is used within the event study framework, the quantitative results are extremely sensitive to the chosen estimation period and cross-section sample of firms. We suggest that if event studies continue to be pursued in the applied finance literature, it is essential that tests of parameter stability are incorporated into this framework. In addition, 'sensitivity analysis', that is, changes to the estimation period and cross-section sample employed, should also be investigated, and conclusions should be limited to interpreting the patterns of the cumulative abnormal returns.
Volume (Year): 3 (1997)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/REJF20|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/REJF20|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Theobald, Michael, 1981. "Beta Stationarity and Estimation Period: Some Analytical Results," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(05), pages 747-757, December.
- Ferson, Wayne E & Kandel, Shmuel & Stambaugh, Robert F, 1987. " Tests of Asset Pricing with Time-Varying Expected Risk Premiums and Market Betas," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 201-220, June.
- Fabozzi, Frank J. & Francis, Jack Clark, 1978. "Beta as a Random Coefficient," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(01), pages 101-116, March.
- Frankfurter, George M. & McGoun, Elton G., 1993. "The event study: An industrial strength method," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 121-141.
- Sunder, Shyam, 1980. " Stationarity of Market Risk: Random Coefficients Tests for Individual Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(4), pages 883-896, September.
- Frankfurter, George M. & Leung, Wai K. & Brockman, Paul D., 1994. "Compounding period length and the market model," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 179-193, August.
- Heckman, James J, 1990. "Varieties of Selection Bias," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 313-318, May.
- Fama, Eugene F, et al, 1969. "The Adjustment of Stock Prices to New Information," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 10(1), pages 1-21, February.
- Altman, Edward I & Jacquillat, Bertrand C & Levasseur, Michel, 1974. "Comparative Analysis of Risk Measures: France and the United States," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(5), pages 1495-1511, December.
- Achim Zeileis, 2004.
"Alternative boundaries for CUSUM tests,"
Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 123-131, January.
- Edgerton, David & Wells, Curt, 1994. "Critical Values for the Cusumsq Statistic in Medium and Large Sized Samples," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 56(3), pages 355-365, August.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "CUSUMTESTS: RATS procedure to compute and display CUSUM and CUSUMQ tests," Statistical Software Components RTS00045, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Schipper, Katherine & Smith, Abbie, 1986. "A comparison of equity carve-outs and seasoned equity offerings : Share price effects and corporate restructuring," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1-2), pages 153-186.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1991. " Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-1617, December.
- Shanken, Jay, 1990. "Intertemporal asset pricing : An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 99-120.
- Handa, Puneet & Kothari, S. P. & Wasley, Charles, 1989. "The relation between the return interval and betas : Implications for the size effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 79-100, June.
- White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
- Ferson, Wayne E. & Foerster, Stephen R., 1994. "Finite sample properties of the generalized method of moments in tests of conditional asset pricing models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 29-55, August.
- Hall, Stephen G & Miles, David K & Taylor, Mark P, 1989. "Modelling Asset Prices with Time-Varying Betas," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 57(4), pages 340-356, December.
- Dufour, J.M., 1981. "Recursive Stability Analysis of Linear Regression Relationships," Cahiers de recherche 8129, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Terence Mills & J. Andrew Coutts, 1996. "Misspecification testing and robust estimation of the market model: estimating betas for the FT-SE industry baskets," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 319-331.
- Bos, T & Newbold, P, 1984. "An Empirical Investigation of the Possibility of Stochastic Systematic Risk in the Market Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(1), pages 35-41, January.
- Farley, John U. & Hinich, Melvin & McGuire, Timothy W., 1975. "Some comparisons of tests for a shift in the slopes of a multivariate linear time series model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 297-318, August. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)