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Binary outcomes, OLS, 2SLS and IV probit

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Listed:
  • Chuhui Li
  • Donald S. Poskitt
  • Frank Windmeijer
  • Xueyan Zhao

Abstract

For a binary outcome Y, generated by a simple threshold crossing model with a single exogenous normally distributed explanatory variable X, the OLS estimator of the coefficient on X in a linear probability model is a consistent estimator of the average partial effect of X. Even in this very simple setting, we show that when allowing for X to be endogenously determined, the 2SLS estimator, using a normally distributed instrumental variable Z, does not identify the same causal parameter. It instead estimates the average partial effect of Z, scaled by the coefficient on Z in the linear first-stage model for X, denoted γ1, or equivalently, it estimates the average partial effect of the population predicted value of X, Zγ1. These causal parameters can differ substantially as we show for the normal Probit model, which implies that care has to be taken when interpreting 2SLS estimation results in a linear probability model. Under joint normality of the error terms, IV Probit maximum likelihood estimation does identify the average partial effect of X. The two-step control function procedure of Rivers and Vuong can also estimate this causal parameter consistently, but a double averaging is needed, one over the distribution of the first-stage error V and one over the distribution of X. If instead a single averaging is performed over the joint distribution of X and V, then the same causal parameter is estimated as the one estimated by the 2SLS estimator in the linear probability model. The 2SLS estimator is a consistent estimator when the average partial effect is equal to 0, and the standard Wald test for this hypothesis has correct size under strong instrument asymptotics. We show that, in general, the standard weak instrument first-stage F-test interpretations do not apply in this setting.

Suggested Citation

  • Chuhui Li & Donald S. Poskitt & Frank Windmeijer & Xueyan Zhao, 2022. "Binary outcomes, OLS, 2SLS and IV probit," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(8), pages 859-876, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:emetrv:v:41:y:2022:i:8:p:859-876
    DOI: 10.1080/07474938.2022.2072321
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    1. José Luis Montiel Olea & Carolin Pflueger, 2013. "A Robust Test for Weak Instruments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 358-369, July.
    2. Leandro M. Magnusson, 2010. "Inference in limited dependent variable models robust to weak identification," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 13(3), pages 56-79, October.
    3. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, April.
    4. Andrews,Donald W. K. & Stock,James H. (ed.), 2005. "Identification and Inference for Econometric Models," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521844413.
    5. Paul S. Clarke & Frank Windmeijer, 2012. "Instrumental Variable Estimators for Binary Outcomes," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 107(500), pages 1638-1652, December.
    6. Rivers, Douglas & Vuong, Quang H., 1988. "Limited information estimators and exogeneity tests for simultaneous probit models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 347-366, November.
    7. Isaiah Andrews, 2018. "Valid Two-Step Identification-Robust Confidence Sets for GMM," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(2), pages 337-348, May.
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    4. Dakyung Seong, 2022. "Binary response model with many weak instruments," Papers 2201.04811, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.

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