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Volatility, Jumps, and Predictability of Returns: A Sequential Analysis

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  • Davide Raggi
  • Silvano Bordignon

Abstract

In this article we propose a Monte Carlo algorithm for sequential parameter learning for a stochastic volatility model with leverage, nonconstant conditional mean and jumps. We are interested in estimating the time invariant parameters and the nonobservable dynamics involved in the model. Our simple but effective idea relies on the auxiliary particle filter algorithm mixed together with the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methodology. Adding an MCMC step to the auxiliary particle filter prevents numerical degeneracies in the sequential algorithm and allows sequential evaluation of the fixed parameters and the latent processes. Empirical evaluation on simulated and real data is presented to assess the performance of the algorithm. A numerical comparison with a full MCMC procedure is also provided. We also extend our methodology to superposition models in which volatility is obtained by a linear combination of independent processes.

Suggested Citation

  • Davide Raggi & Silvano Bordignon, 2011. "Volatility, Jumps, and Predictability of Returns: A Sequential Analysis," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(6), pages 669-695.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:emetrv:v:30:y:2011:i:6:p:669-695
    DOI: 10.1080/07474938.2011.553570
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    8. Siem Jan Koopman & Eugenie Hol Uspensky, 2002. "The stochastic volatility in mean model: empirical evidence from international stock markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(6), pages 667-689.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lawal A. I. & Oloye M. I. & Otekunrin A. O. & Ajayi S. A., 2013. "Returns on Investments and Volatility Rate in the Nigerian Banking Industry," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(10), pages 1298-1313, October.

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