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On Some Models for Value-At-Risk

Author

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  • Philip Yu
  • Wai Keung Li
  • Shusong Jin

Abstract

The idea of statistical learning can be applied in financial risk management. In recent years, value-at-risk (VaR) has become the standard tool for market risk measurement and management. For better VaR estimation, Engle and Manganelli (2004) introduced the conditional autoregressive value-at-risk (CAViaR) model to estimate the VaR directly by quantile regression. To entertain the nonlinearity and structural change in the VaR, we extend the CAViaR idea using two approaches: the threshold GARCH (TGARCH) and the mixture-GARCH models. The estimation method of these models are proposed. Our models should possess all the advantages of the CAViaR model and enhance the nonlinear structure. The methods are applied to the S&P500, Hang Seng, Nikkei and Nasdaq indices to illustrate our models.

Suggested Citation

  • Philip Yu & Wai Keung Li & Shusong Jin, 2010. "On Some Models for Value-At-Risk," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(5-6), pages 622-641.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:emetrv:v:29:y:2010:i:5-6:p:622-641 DOI: 10.1080/07474938.2010.481972
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Cathy W. S. Chen & Richard Gerlach & Bruce B. K. Hwang & Michael McAleer, 2011. "Forecasting Value-at-Risk Using Nonlinear Regression Quantiles and the Intra-day Range," KIER Working Papers 775, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    2. Abad, Pilar & Benito, Sonia, 2013. "A detailed comparison of value at risk estimates," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 258-276.
    3. Chen, Cathy W.S. & Gerlach, Richard & Hwang, Bruce B.K. & McAleer, Michael, 2012. "Forecasting Value-at-Risk using nonlinear regression quantiles and the intra-day range," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 557-574.
    4. Nieto, Maria Rosa & Ruiz, Esther, 2016. "Frontiers in VaR forecasting and backtesting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 475-501.

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