IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/applec/v48y2016i44p4238-4250.html

News sentiment and overshooting of exchange rates

Author

Listed:
  • Stefan Feuerriegel
  • Georg Wolff
  • Dirk Neumann

Abstract

In a globalized world, the volume of international trade is based on both import and export prices, thereby making a country’s economy highly dependent on exchange rates. In order to study exchange rate movements, one frequently exploits the so-called Dornbusch overshooting model. However, the model is controversial from a theoretical point of view: it explains exchange rate movements by a number of fundamental variables but ignores how novel information in the form of news can enter the market. As a remedy, this article adjusts for information dissemination by performing a multivariate analysis to compare the classical overshooting model with an extended variant that includes news sentiment. Our results show that news sentiment has a substantial explanatory power of 11% of the exchange rate forecasting error variance. In addition, we also find statistical evidence that a shock in news sentiment may lead to overshooting.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Feuerriegel & Georg Wolff & Dirk Neumann, 2016. "News sentiment and overshooting of exchange rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(44), pages 4238-4250, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:48:y:2016:i:44:p:4238-4250
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2016.1153796
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00036846.2016.1153796
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/00036846.2016.1153796?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1980. "Exchange Rate Economics: Where Do We Stand?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 11(1, Tenth ), pages 143-206.
    2. Mr. Kenneth Rogoff, 2002. "Dornbusch’s Overshooting Model After Twenty-Five Years," IMF Working Papers 2002/039, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Khumalo, Zitsile Zamantungwa & Eita, Joel Hinaunye & Choga, Ireen, 2020. "An Empirical Test of Real Exchange Rate Overshooting in Selected African Countries," MPRA Paper 101303, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Stefan Feuerriegel & Helmut Prendinger, 2018. "News-based trading strategies," Papers 1807.06824, arXiv.org.
    3. Chi-Wei Su & Xu-Yu Cai & Ran Tao, 2020. "Can Stock Investor Sentiment Be Contagious in China?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-16, February.
    4. Tjeerd M. Boonman & Jens C. Fittje, 2025. "Connectedness in exchange rates and news sentiment in the Asia‐Pacific region," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(3), pages 2389-2406, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. McCallum, Bennett T, 2000. "Theoretical Analysis Regarding a Zero Lower Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 870-904, November.
    2. Peter Isard, 1983. "What's wrong with empirical exchange rate models: some critical issues and new directions," International Finance Discussion Papers 226, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Jorge Braga de Macedo & Jeffrey Goldstein & David Meerschwam, 1984. "International Portfolio Diversification: Short-Term Financial Assets and Gold," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 199-238, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Khosrow Doroodian & Chulho Jung & Roy Boyd, 1999. "Testing the law of one price under the fixed and flexible exchange rate systems," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(9), pages 613-616.
    5. Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2014. "Structural breaks and long memory in modeling and forecasting volatility of foreign exchange markets of oil exporters: The importance of scheduled and unscheduled news announcements," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 101-119.
    6. Günter Coenen & Volker W. Wieland, 2004. "Exchange-Rate Policy and the Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 80-84, May.
    7. Arango-Lozano, Lucía & Menkhoff, Lukas & Rodríguez-Novoa, Daniela & Villamizar-Villegas, Mauricio, 2024. "The effectiveness of FX interventions: A meta-analysis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    8. Jacques Mélitz, 1982. "Jusqu'à quel point doit-on simplifier la modélisation du taux de change ?," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 33(4), pages 675-694.
    9. Emmanuel Farhi & Ivan Werning, "undated". "Fiscal Multipliers: Liquidity Traps and Currency Unions," Working Paper 78556, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    10. Juan J. Echavarría & Luis F. Melo-Velandia & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2018. "The impact of pre-announced day-to-day interventions on the Colombian exchange rate," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1319-1336, November.
    11. Goldberg, Michael D. & Frydman, Roman, 1996. "Empirical exchange rate models and shifts in the co-integrating vector," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 55-78, March.
    12. David Chávez, José Rodriguez Carlos Arias, 2011. "Análisis De La Economía Alemana En El Período 2002 – 2006," Revista Isocuanta, Universidad Santo Tomás, vol. 0(0), pages 1-19.
    13. Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Gruijters, A.P.D., 1989. "On the short term objectives of daily intervention by the Deutsche Bundesbank and the federal reserve system in the U.S. Dollar-Deutsche Mark exchange market," Other publications TiSEM b3c9a534-131a-48b4-abbb-c, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    14. Ekong, Christopher N. & Onye, Kenneth U., 2013. "The Failure of the Monetary Exchange Rate Model for the Naira-Dollar," MPRA Paper 88238, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Moses M. Sichei & Tewodros G. Gebreselasie & Olusegun A. Akanbi, 2005. "An Econometric Model of the Rand-US Dollar Nominal Exchange Rate," Working Papers 200514, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    16. Coenen, Gunter & Wieland, Volker, 2003. "The zero-interest-rate bound and the role of the exchange rate for monetary policy in Japan," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1071-1101, July.
    17. Arie Krampf, 2012. "The Consolidation of the Anglo-Saxon/European Consensus on Price Stability - From International Coordination to a Rule-Based Monetary Regime," KFG Working Papers p0047, Free University Berlin.
    18. Rüth, Sebastian K., 2020. "Shifts in monetary policy and exchange rate dynamics: Is Dornbusch's overshooting hypothesis intact, after all?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    19. Cyril May & Greg Farrell & Jannie Rossouw, 2018. "Do Monetary Policy Announcements Affect Exchange Rate Returns and Volatility of Returns? Some Evidence from High‐Frequency Intra‐Day South African Data," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 86(3), pages 308-338, September.
    20. Frankel, Jeffrey & Engel, Charles M., 1984. "Do asset-demand functions optimize over the mean and variance of real returns? A six-currency test," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3-4), pages 309-323, November.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:48:y:2016:i:44:p:4238-4250. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.