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Analysis of the volatility's dependency structure during the subprime crisis

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  • Bruno P. Arruda
  • Pedro L. Valls Pereira

Abstract

In this article, we test the hypothesis of contagion amongst sectors within the United States' economy during the subprime crisis. The econometric methodology applied here is based on the dynamic conditional correlation model proposed by Engle (2002). Further, we applied several Lagrange multiplier (LM)-robust tests to test whether there were structural breaks in series' dependency structures during the period of interest. Events theoretically classified as relevant to the crisis upshots as well as the interactions between the moments of the series were used as indicator functions to the referred structural breaks. The main conclusion of this study is that one can indeed observe contagion within almost all pairs of sectors' indices. Thus, we conclude that the dependency structure of the sectors of interest has faced structural changes during the years of 2007 and 2008. Hence, diversification strategies as well as the risk analysis inherent to the portfolios' management may have been drastically affected.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruno P. Arruda & Pedro L. Valls Pereira, 2013. "Analysis of the volatility's dependency structure during the subprime crisis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(36), pages 5031-5045, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:45:y:2013:i:36:p:5031-5045
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2013.815311
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00036846.2013.815311
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alexis Derviz & Jiri Podpiera, 2006. "Cross-Border Lending Contagion in Multinational Banks," Working Papers 2006/9, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    2. Paul R Masson, 1998. "Contagion; Monsoonal Effects, Spillovers, and Jumps Between Multiple Equilibria," IMF Working Papers 98/142, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Engle, Robert F & Sheppard, Kevin K, 2001. "Theoretical and Empirical Properties of Dynamic Conditional Correlation Multivariate GARCH," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt5s2218dp, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    4. Taimur Baig & Ilan Goldfajn, 2000. "The Russian Default and the Contagion to Brazil," IMF Working Papers 00/160, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Paul R. Masson, 1999. "Multiple equilibria, contagion, and the emerging market crises," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep.
    6. Heiko Hesse & Nathaniel Frank & Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo, 2008. "Transmission of Liquidity Shocks; Evidence from the 2007 Subprime Crisis," IMF Working Papers 08/200, International Monetary Fund.
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