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The effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy responses to twin crises

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  • Jie Li

Abstract

We study how effective fiscal and monetary policy responses are during a twin crisis. Using the dataset provided by Laeven and Valencia (2008), we identify 57 episodes of twin crises. Following the methods proposed in Baldacci et al . (2009) and Hutchison et al . (2010), we construct the variables measuring the duration and output cost of a twin crisis. We find that fiscal policy does not seem to be associated with the shortening of a twin crisis. Regarding monetary policy, we find that monetary tightening is associated with the lengthening of a twin crisis duration, consistent with the result in Hutchison et al . (2010) dealing with a sudden stop crisis. In addition, our results show that while a mild monetary expansion is effective in reducing a twin crisis duration, over-expansionary monetary policy loses its effectiveness.

Suggested Citation

  • Jie Li, 2013. "The effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy responses to twin crises," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(27), pages 3904-3913, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:45:y:2013:i:27:p:3904-3913
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2012.736943
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Perotti, Roberto, 1996. "Fiscal Consolidation in Europe: Composition Matters," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 105-110, May.
    2. Ilan Goldfajn & Poonam Gupta, 2003. "Does Monetary Policy Stabilize the Exchange Rate Following a Currency Crisis?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 50(1), pages 1-5.
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    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    5. C. John McDermott & Robert F. Wescott, 1996. "An Empirical Analysis of Fiscal Adjustments," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(4), pages 725-753, December.
    6. Hutchison, Michael M. & Noy, Ilan & Wang, Lidan, 2010. "Fiscal and monetary policies and the cost of sudden stops," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 973-987, October.
    7. Sutherland, Alan, 1997. "Fiscal crises and aggregate demand: can high public debt reverse the effects of fiscal policy?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 147-162, August.
    8. Perotti, Roberto, 1998. " The Political Economy of Fiscal Consolidations," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(1), pages 367-394, March.
    9. Goderis, Benedikt & Ioannidou, Vasso P., 2008. "Do high interest rates defend currencies during speculative attacks New evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 158-169, January.
    10. Fabian Valencia & Luc Laeven, 2008. "Systemic Banking Crises; A New Database," IMF Working Papers 08/224, International Monetary Fund.
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