IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/applec/v42y2010i7p865-874.html

Forecasting fuel ethanol consumption in Brazil by time series models: 2006-2012

Author

Listed:
  • Sergio Rangel Figueira
  • Heloisa Lee Burnquist
  • Mirian Rumenos Piedade Bacchi

Abstract

This article analysed scenarios for Brazilian consumption of ethanol for the period 2006 to 2012. The results show that if the country's GDP sustains a 4.6% a year growth, domestic consumption of fuel ethanol could increase to 25.16 billion liters in this period, which is a volume relatively close to the forecasted gasoline consumption of 31 billion liters. At a lower GDP growth of 1.22% a year, gasoline consumption would be reduced and domestic ethanol consumption in Brazil would be no higher than 18.32 billion liters. Contrary to the current situation, forecasts indicated that hydrated ethanol consumption could become much higher than anhydrous consumption in Brazil. The former is being consumed in cars moved exclusively by ethanol and flex-fuel cars, successfully introduced in the country at 2003. Flex cars allow Brazilian consumers to choose between gasoline and hydrated ethanol and immediately switch to whichever fuel presents the most favourable relative price.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergio Rangel Figueira & Heloisa Lee Burnquist & Mirian Rumenos Piedade Bacchi, 2010. "Forecasting fuel ethanol consumption in Brazil by time series models: 2006-2012," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(7), pages 865-874.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:42:y:2010:i:7:p:865-874
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840701720978
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00036840701720978
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/00036840701720978?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, Paul, 1986. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 2, number 9780122951831 edited by Shell, Karl.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nogueira, Luiz Augusto Horta & Antonio de Souza, Luiz Gustavo & Cortez, Luís Augusto Barbosa & Leal, Manoel Regis Lima Verde, 2017. "Sustainable and Integrated Bioenergy Assessment for Latin America, Caribbean and Africa (SIByl-LACAf): The path from feasibility to acceptability," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 292-308.
    2. El Montasser, Ghassen & Gupta, Rangan & Martins, Andre Luis & Wanke, Peter, 2015. "Are there multiple bubbles in the ethanol–gasoline price ratio of Brazil?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 19-23.
    3. Derick David Quintino & Heloisa Lee Burnquist & Paulo Jorge Silveira Ferreira, 2021. "Carbon Emissions and Brazilian Ethanol Prices: Are They Correlated? An Econophysics Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-18, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David Murrell & Weiqiu Yu, 2000. "The Effect of the Harmonized Sales Tax on Consumer Prices in Atlantic Canada," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 26(4), pages 451-460, December.
    2. Jun Ma & Mark E. Wohar, 2013. "An Unobserved Components Model that Yields Business and Medium-Run Cycles," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(7), pages 1351-1373, October.
    3. Pär Österholm, 2005. "The Taylor Rule: A Spurious Regression?," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 217-247, July.
    4. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika & Wei, Min, 2006. "What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 359-403.
    5. Michaelides, Panayotis & Milios, John, 2009. "TFP change, output gap and inflation in the Russian Federation (1994-2006)," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 61(4), pages 339-352, July.
    6. Babula, Ronald A., 1997. "Economic Effects Of A Countervailing Duty Order On The U.S. Lamb Meat Industry," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 26(01), pages 1-12, April.
    7. Giancarlo Lutero & Marco Marini, 2010. "Direct vs Indirect Forecasts of Foreign Trade Unit Value Indices," Rivista di statistica ufficiale, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY), vol. 12(2-3), pages 73-96, October.
    8. jose ramos pires manso, 2004. "Economical Versus Political Cycles In An Iberian Manufacturing Sector," Industrial Organization 0404003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Chakrabarti, Avik, 2006. "The saving-investment relationship revisited: New evidence from multivariate heterogeneous panel cointegration analyses," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 402-419, June.
    10. Baghestani, Hamid, 2008. "Federal Reserve versus private information: Who is the best unemployment rate predictor," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 101-110.
    11. Parigi, Giuseppe & Golinelli, Roberto, 2005. "Short-Run Italian GDP Forecasting and Real-Time Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 5302, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Aris Spanos & Niki Papadopoulou, 2013. "A Small Macroeconometric Model for the Cyprus Economy," Working Papers 2013-02, Central Bank of Cyprus.
    13. Ceci, Vladimiro & Manganelli, Simone & Vecchiato, Walter, 2002. "Sensitivity analysis of volatility: a new tool for risk management," Working Paper Series 194, European Central Bank.
    14. David McMillan & Isabel Ruiz & Alan Speight, 2010. "Correlations and spillovers among three euro rates: evidence using realised variance," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(8), pages 753-767.
    15. Sanders, Dwight R. & Garcia, Philip & Manfredo, Mark R., 2008. "Information Content in Deferred Futures Prices: Live Cattle and Hogs," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 33(01), pages 1-12, April.
    16. Lallmahomed, Naguib & Taubert, Peter, 1989. "What can we learn from univariate time series models? The case of sugar production in Mauritius 1879-1987," MPRA Paper 40850, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Pablo Pincheira-Brown & Andrea Bentancor & Nicolás Hardy, 2023. "An Inconvenient Truth about Forecast Combinations," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-24, September.
    18. Auffhammer, Maximilian, 2007. "The rationality of EIA forecasts under symmetric and asymmetric loss," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 102-121, May.
    19. Krüger, Niclas, 2012. "Does infrastructure really cause growth?: the time scale dependent causality nexus between infrastructure investments and GDP," Working papers in Transport Economics 2012:15, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
    20. Dovern, Jonas, 2006. "Predicting GDP components: do leading indicators increase predictability?," Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers 436, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:42:y:2010:i:7:p:865-874. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.