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Does infrastructure really cause growth?: the time scale dependent causality nexus between infrastructure investments and GDP

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Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between infrastructure investments and economic activity in Sweden for the period 1800-2000. In order to overcome the problem of endogeneity, independent time scales are used to analyze the relationship. The paper also examines the dynamics between the variables by testing for causality in the Granger sense and constructing a vector autoregressive model separately for each time scale. The finding is that the causality nexus between growth and transport infrastructure investment is timescale-dependent since it reverses in a comparison of the short-run dynamics (2-4 years) and the longer-run dynamics (8-16 years). This causality reversal is unique for infrastructure investments compared to investments in other sectorsof the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Krüger, Niclas, 2012. "Does infrastructure really cause growth?: the time scale dependent causality nexus between infrastructure investments and GDP," Working papers in Transport Economics 2012:15, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:ctswps:2012_015
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    File URL: http://www.transportportal.se/SWoPEc/CTS2012-15.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gallegati Marco & Gallegati Mauro, 2007. "Wavelet Variance Analysis of Output in G-7 Countries," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(3), pages 1-25, September.
    2. Alicia H. Munnell, 1992. "Policy Watch: Infrastructure Investment and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 189-198, Fall.
    3. Luoto, Jani, 2011. "Aggregate infrastructure capital stock and long-run growth: Evidence from Finnish data," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 181-191, March.
    4. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, Paul, 1986. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 2, number 9780122951831 edited by Shell, Karl.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Infrastructure; GDP growth; Investment; Time scale decomposition;

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • N70 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - General, International, or Comparative

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