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Changing effects of monetary policy in the US-evidence from a time-varying coefficient VAR

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  • Florian Hoppner
  • Christian Melzer
  • Thorsten Neumann

Abstract

We estimate a time-varying coefficient VAR model for the US economy to analyse (i) if the effect of monetary policy on output has been changing systematically over time, and (ii) if monetary policy has asymmetric effects over the business cycle. We find that the impact of monetary policy shocks has been gradually declining over the sample period (1962 to 2002), as some theories of the monetary transmission mechanism imply. In addition, our results indicate that the effects of monetary policy are greater in a recession than in a boom.

Suggested Citation

  • Florian Hoppner & Christian Melzer & Thorsten Neumann, 2008. "Changing effects of monetary policy in the US-evidence from a time-varying coefficient VAR," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(18), pages 2353-2360.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:40:y:2008:i:18:p:2353-2360
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840600970112
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo M.R.A. Engel, 1992. "Price Rigidities, Asymmetries, and Output Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 4091, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni, 2006. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(3), pages 445-462, August.
    3. Matteo Ciccarelli & Alessandro Rebucci, 2001. "The Transmission Mechanism of European Monetary Policy: Is There Heterogeneity? Is It Changing Over Time?," Working Papers 0115, Banco de España.
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    1. Mustafa Caglayan & Ozge Kandemir Kocaaslan & Kostas Mouratidis, 2017. "Financial Depth and the Asymmetric Impact of Monetary Policy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(6), pages 1195-1218, December.
    2. Kwangyong Park, 2019. "Uncertainty, Attention Allocation and Monetary Policy Asymmetry," Working Papers 2019-5, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    3. Zare, Roohollah, 2015. "Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy and Business Cycles in Iran using Markov-Switching Models," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 10(4), pages 125-142, October.
    4. Chance Ngamanya Mwabutwa & Nicola Viegi & Manoel Bittencourt, 2016. "Evolution Of Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism In Malawi: A Tvp-Var Approach," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 41(1), pages 33-55, March.
    5. Mustafa Caglayan & Ozge Kandemir Kocaaslan & Kostas Mouratidis, 2013. "The Role of Financial Depth on the Asymmetric Impact of Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2013007, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    6. Pao‐Lin Tien & Tara M. Sinclair & Edward N. Gamber, 2021. "Do Fed Forecast Errors Matter?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(3), pages 686-712, June.
    7. Heather L. R. Tierney, 2012. "Examining the ability of core inflation to capture the overall trend of total inflation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(4), pages 493-514, February.
    8. Fang, Liting & He, Lerong & Huang, Zhigang, 2019. "Asymmetric effects of monetary policy on firm scale in China: A quantile regression approach," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 35-50.
    9. Bedri Kamil Onur Tas, 2010. "Determinants of Time-Varying Sensitivity of MENA Countries to Global Shocks: A State Space Approach," Working Papers 530, Economic Research Forum, revised 06 Jan 2010.
    10. Cordoni, Francesco & Dorémus, Nicolas & Moneta, Alessio, 2024. "Identification of vector autoregressive models with nonlinear contemporaneous structure," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).

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