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Forecasting profitability and earnings: a study of the UK market (1982-2000)

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  • D. E. Allen
  • H. M. Salim

Abstract

An approach recently developed by Fama and French (2000) is applied to the study of whether UK company profitability is mean-reverting. A sample of roughly 987 firms per year for a period from 1982-2000 is used, drawn from Datastream. In a simple partial adjustment model convergence towards the mean at a rate of about 25% per year is found. The results are very similar in direction to those of Fama and French (2000) but the results do not display significant non-linearities. The change in profitability appears to be more strongly influenced by dividends in the UK.

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  • D. E. Allen & H. M. Salim, 2005. "Forecasting profitability and earnings: a study of the UK market (1982-2000)," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 2009-2018.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:37:y:2005:i:17:p:2009-2018
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840500244634
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Amor-Tapia, Borja & Tascón Fernández, María T., 2014. "Estimation of future levels and changes in profitability: The effect of the relative position of the firm in its industry and the operating-financing disaggregation," Revista de Contabilidad - Spanish Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 30-46.
    6. Kjell Bjørn Nordal & Randi Næs, 2012. "Mean Reversion in Profitability for Non†listed Firms," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 18(5), pages 929-949, November.
    7. Konstantinos Nikolopoulos, 2010. "Forecasting with quantitative methods: the impact of special events in time series," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(8), pages 947-955.
    8. Safia Shabbir, 2013. "Implications of Monetary Policy for Corporate Sector and Economic Growth in Pakistan," SBP Working Paper Series 61, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    9. Hui Tian & Andrew Yim & David P. Newton, 2021. "Tail-Heaviness, Asymmetry, and Profitability Forecasting by Quantile Regression," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(8), pages 5209-5233, August.
    10. Vicky Bamiatzi & Konstantinos Bozos & Konstantinos Nikolopoulos, 2010. "On the predictability of firm performance via simple time-series and econometric models: evidence from UK SMEs," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 279-282, February.

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