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Seasonal fractional components in macroeconomic time series

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  • Luis Gil-Alana

Abstract

Seasonal fractional models are shown in this article to be alternative credible ways of modelling the seasonal component in macroeconomic time series. A testing procedure that allows one to test different orders of integration at zero and at each of the seasonal frequencies is described. This procedure is then applied to the Italian consumption and income series, the results being very sensitive to the way of modelling the I(0) disturbances.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Gil-Alana, 2004. "Seasonal fractional components in macroeconomic time series," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(12), pages 1265-1279.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:36:y:2004:i:12:p:1265-1279
    DOI: 10.1080/0003684042000260456
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Osborn, Denise R, et al, 1988. "Seasonality and the Order of Integration for Consumption," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 50(4), pages 361-377, November.
    2. Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Yoo, B. S., 1990. "Seasonal integration and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 215-238.
    3. Gil-Alana, L. A. & Robinson, P. M., 1997. "Testing of unit root and other nonstationary hypotheses in macroeconomic time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 241-268, October.
    4. Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2000. "Mean reversion in the real exchange rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 285-288, December.
    5. L. A. Gil-Alana & P. M. Robinson, 2001. "Testing of seasonal fractional integration in UK and Japanese consumption and income," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(2), pages 95-114.
    6. Carlin, J. B. & Dempster, A. P. & Jonas, A. B., 1985. "On models and methods for Bayesian time series analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1-2), pages 67-90.
    7. Gil-AlaƱa, L. A. & Robinson, Peter M., 2001. "Testing of seasonal fractional integration in UK and Japanese consumption and income," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 298, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Dickey, David A & Pantula, Sastry G, 2002. "Determining the Order of Differencing in Autoregressive Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 18-24, January.
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