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Independence of monetary policy under fixed exchange rates: the case of Saudi Arabia

  • Krishna Akikina
  • Hamed Al-Hoshan
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    This study specifies a modified version of the monetary approach to the balance of payments (MABP) model with free capital flow and fixed exchange rates for Saudi Arabia, and tests the independence of monetary policy of its central bank using annual data from 1960 to 1994. Further, capital flight and speculative inventory behaviour of importers of consumer and capital goods in Saudi Arabia are also tested to the expected exchange rate depreciation during the periods of exchange turmoil against the riyal. The results of this study indicate that Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority has at best a weak control on its money supply which is in accord with one of the predictions of MABP theory. Further, the study found little support to the speculative inventory behaviour of the importers of consumer and capital goods in Saudi Arabia against exchange rate depreciation of the riyal. However, the results suggest that the expected change in exchange rate depreciation has a positive and a significant impact on capital flight in Saudi Arabia.

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    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00036840210148049
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    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

    Volume (Year): 35 (2003)
    Issue (Month): 4 ()
    Pages: 437-448

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    Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:35:y:2003:i:4:p:437-448
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    1. Ohanian, Lee E & Stockman, Alan C, 1997. "Short-Run Independence of Monetary Policy under Pegged Exchange Rates and Effects of Money on Exchange Rates and Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(4), pages 783-806, November.
    2. E.O. Svensson, Lars, 1994. "Why exchange rate bands? : Monetary independence in spite of fixed exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 157-199, February.
    3. Laskar, Daniel M., 1982. "Short-run independence of monetary policy under a pegged-exchange-rates system: An econometric approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 57-79, January.
    4. Nadeem U. Haque & Kajal Lahiri & Peter J. Montiel, 1990. "A Macroeconometric Model for Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(3), pages 537-559, September.
    5. Kouri, Pentti J K & Porter, Michael G, 1974. "International Capital Flows and Portfolio Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(3), pages 443-67, May/June.
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