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Inflation illusion or no illusion: what did pre- and post-war data say?

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  • Chao Wei
  • Fred Joutz

Abstract

Campbell and Vuolteenaho (CV, 2004) empirically decompose the S&P 500's dividend yield from 1927 to 2002 to derive a measure of residual mispricing attributed to inflation illusion. They argue that the strong positive correlation between the mispricing component and inflation is strong evidence for the inflation illusion hypothesis. We find evidence for structural instability in their prediction equation for the excess return. We apply the same decomposition approach to the data before and after 1952, and find that the correlation between inflation and the mispricing component is close to zero in the post-war period, when inflation and the dividend yield are strongly positively correlated. The post-war data do not support the inflation illusion hypothesis as the explanation for the positive correlation between inflation and dividend yields.

Suggested Citation

  • Chao Wei & Fred Joutz, 2011. "Inflation illusion or no illusion: what did pre- and post-war data say?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(21), pages 1599-1603.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:21:y:2011:i:21:p:1599-1603
    DOI: 10.1080/09603107.2011.587771
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. " The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    2. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Christian Julliard, 2008. "Money Illusion and Housing Frenzies," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(1), pages 135-180, January.
    3. Campbell, John Y, 1991. "A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(405), pages 157-179, March.
    4. John Y. Campbell & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2004. "Inflation Illusion and Stock Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 19-23, May.
    5. Polk, Christopher & Thompson, Samuel & Vuolteenaho, Tuomo, 2006. "Cross-sectional forecasts of the equity premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 101-141, July.
    6. Bekaert, Geert & Engstrom, Eric, 2010. "Inflation and the stock market: Understanding the "Fed Model"," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 278-294, April.
    7. Chao Wei, 2010. "Inflation and Stock Prices: No Illusion," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(2-3), pages 325-345, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bianchi, Francesco, 2008. "Rare Events, Financial Crises, and the Cross-Section of Asset Returns," MPRA Paper 20831, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Jan 2010.
    2. Bekaert, Geert & Engstrom, Eric, 2010. "Inflation and the stock market: Understanding the "Fed Model"," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 278-294, April.

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