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Inflation and Stock Prices: No Illusion

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  • CHAO WEI

Abstract

Campbell and Vuolteenaho (2004) use VAR results to advocate inflation illusion as the explanation for the positive association between inflation and dividend yields. Using a structural approach, we find that a fully rational dynamic general equilibrium model can generate a positive correlation between dividend yields and inflation as observed in the data. The paper describes a channel by which the technology shock moves both inflation and dividend yields in the same direction, resulting in a positive correlation between the two. Copyright (c) 2010 The Ohio State University.

Suggested Citation

  • Chao Wei, 2010. "Inflation and Stock Prices: No Illusion," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(2-3), pages 325-345, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:42:y:2010:i:2-3:p:325-345
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    Cited by:

    1. Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Adeolu O. Adewuyi & Olabanji B. Awodumi & David Roubaud, 2022. "Relationship between stock returns and inflation: New evidence from the US using wavelet and causality methods," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 4515-4540, October.
    2. Ahmed, Walid M.A. & Sleem, Mohamed A.E., 2023. "Short- and long-run determinants of the price behavior of US clean energy stocks: A dynamic ARDL simulations approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    3. Hollander, Hylton & Liu, Guangling, 2016. "The equity price channel in a New-Keynesian DSGE model with financial frictions and banking," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 375-389.
    4. Hollander, Hylton, 2017. "Macroprudential policy with convertible debt," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PB), pages 285-305.
    5. Sun, Yulong, 2024. "Prices and returns: Role of inflation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    6. Somayeh Madadpour & Mohsen Asgari, 2019. "The puzzling relationship between stocks return and inflation: a review article," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 66(2), pages 115-145, June.
    7. Xu, Yongdeng & Guan, Bo & Lu, Wenna & Heravi, Saeed, 2024. "Macroeconomic shocks and volatility spillovers between stock, bond, gold and crude oil markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    8. Cedric L. Mbanga & Ali F. Darrat, 2016. "Fiscal policy and the US stock market," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 987-1002, November.
    9. Heimonen, Kari & Junttila, Juha & Kärkkäinen, Samu, 2017. "Stock market and exchange rate information in the Taylor rule: Evidence from OECD countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1-18.
    10. Chao Wei & Fred Joutz, 2011. "Inflation illusion or no illusion: what did pre- and post-war data say?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(21), pages 1599-1603.
    11. Gozluklu, Arie & Morin, Annaïg, 2019. "Stock vs. Bond yields and demographic fluctuations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).

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